Monthly

Waiting for the IMF and the Article IV

Agosto 2016

What will the IMF find when it arrives next month to conduct the first article IV review in a decade? Argentina is an economy that is still suffering from the large external and fiscal imbalances inherited from the Kirchner administration, from the large distortions in relative prices that are extremely costly to co...

The ups and downs of the Macri-economics scenarios

Julio 2016

All eyes are now posed on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables, as inflation is displaying more persistence than had been anticipated, the recession is proving to be deeper, while there are more concerns about the fiscal accounts and the real appreciation of the peso. In what follows we rely on a matrix of ...

The capital market in Argentina: warming up the engine

Junio 2016

The local capital market is relatively small and unsophisticated. This is a legacy of a long history of monetary instability, macroeconomic crises and massive breach of contracts, which undermined the confidence in the local currency and economic institutions. As a direct consequence, most Argentines save abroad the...

Investment: the key to unlock growth

Mayo 2016

Argentina is entering into a new economic cycle where investment is expected to be the main engine of growth. This represents a change in relation to the way the economy worked in the last years, as consumption had been the tractor, boosted by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, negative real interest rates a...

Bye-bye default, hello financing

Abril 2016

The first four months have been very positive for the Macri administration regarding the achievements on both the political and the economic fronts.

The exchange rate in search of an equilibrium

Marzo 2016

After two months of smooth sailing the economy enters a more turbulent period in which inflation suffers the effects of the depreciation and the increases in utility rates, the economy is in the depth of the recession and reserves and the exchange rate are still under pressure awaiting the benefits of capital inflow...

A good start, but many challenges ahead

Febrero 2016

In January the Macri administration continued to consolidate politically. Its positive image improved as it dispelled the worst concerns about the possibility of a runaway inflation or a situation of social unrest that Scioli raised in the presidential campaign.

The scorecard of Macri’s first month

Enero 2016

Macri’s first month in office has been on the whole very positive for the economy. He scored a huge victory on the unification of the foreign exchange market and the elimination of the “cepo”, as it was achieved without the complications on the inflation front that many were forecasting. It was essentially a non-ev...

Macri’s macro: what is next?

Diciembre 2015

It finally happened: Macri is now president, though the difference in the final count of the election was of only 2.8 percentage points over Scioli; much tighter than had been predicted by the opinion polls. Does this small difference hamper Macri’s ability to govern? A landslide victory would have certainly b...

Electoral surprise. What’s next?

Noviembre 2015

The first round of the Presidential elections has suddenly changed the political outlook, as Macri is now the front runner, and his party Cambiemos has a good chance of winning in the second round. All the opinion polls, for whatever value they might have, are showing that Macri is now leading by at least 6 percenta...

Informes Mensuales

Waiting for the IMF and the Article IV

Waiting for the IMF and the Article IV

The ups and downs of the Macri-economics scenarios

The ups and downs of the Macri-economics scenarios

The capital market in Argentina: warming up the engine

The capital market in Argentina: warming up the engine

Investment: the key to unlock growth

Investment: the key to unlock growth

Bye-bye default, hello financing

Bye-bye default, hello financing

The exchange rate in search of an equilibrium

The exchange rate in search of an equilibrium

A good start, but many challenges ahead

A good start, but many challenges ahead

The scorecard of Macri’s first month

The scorecard of Macri’s first month

Macri’s macro: what is next?

Macri’s macro: what is next?

Electoral surprise. What’s next?

Electoral surprise. What’s next?

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