Monthly

The truth behind the exchange rate

Enero 2015

The year ends on a strange note: while the EM world is in turmoil and the currencies are depreciating everywhere, Argentina has managed to stabilize the parallel exchange rate and insists in keeping the official exchange rate quasi-fixed in an effort to control inflation. The question at this stage is whether this s...

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Diciembre 2014

International reserves are now at center stage once more. Creative accounting, short-term borrowing and the postponement of the payment of imports have helped to increase the headline figure to around USD 29 billion. Just without these gimmicks they would only be USD 22 billion. The market players, for reasons th...

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Noviembre 2014

In the last months, there were marked cycles in the evolution of the blue exchange rate, in which it first entered in “panic mode” generating headlines of a runaway depreciation that in the end did not happen, as was the case in mid-October when the currency started an appreciating trend. This pattern has been the r...

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

Octubre 2014

The changes at the Central Bank are taking place at a critical time: international reserves are once again dropping with a gloomy outlook for the fourth quarter and are likely to end the year at around 25 billion dollars, the currency is getting deeper in overvaluation territory and there is no clue about how the au...

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Septiembre 2014

The economy is all of a sudden back in the middle of a storm. There are pressures on the exchange rate that is now overvalued, the spread on the parallel exchange rate has increased to 70%, while international reserves are falling again. Government officials are going around the world (to China, Europe and the US) e...

Toying with default: How long can it last?

Agosto 2014

In the end there was a default, though not a standard one. Argentina is solvent and it has shown ability and willingness to pay. The Government is even arguing that the country is not in default, as it transferred the funds to service the Discounts bonds to the account that the Bank of New York (BoNY) has at the Cen...

The final countdown: How to avoid the default

Julio 2014

The Supreme Court decided not to take Argentina’s case on Monday June 16th, a decision that took the market by surprise and the Government without a contingent plan. This decision left Argentina without any further legal options and it now has to choose between two costly alternatives: either it reaches some type of...

Kick off in Brazil and in the Supreme Court: Vamos Argentina!

Junio 2014

Recent economic developments: recession, exchange rate and debt The short term outlook is generating more questions than answers, as the economic performance is dominated by high inflation, a recession which is relative deep in many sectors, pressures on international reserves that are now temporarily rising t...

An ugly recession on the way

Mayo 2014

The good news is that Argentina is experiencing an improvement in financial indicators, but unfortunately this time it is accompanied by deterioration in economic activity. The incipient financial stability that was achieved in March was consolidated in April, as the spread between the parallel and the official ...

The recent changes in economic policies: whatever it takes to survive

Abril 2014

Will the Government do whatever it takes to increase reserves, avoid an external crisis and reach the end of its mandate in one piece? Based on the recent evidence, the answer is unambiguously yes. It is now resorting to policies that were demonized during the last ten years, such as large increases in interest rate...

Informes Mensuales

The truth behind the exchange rate

The truth behind the exchange rate

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Toying with default: How long can it last?

Toying with default: How long can it last?

The final countdown: How to avoid the default

The final countdown: How to avoid the default

Kick off in Brazil and in the Supreme Court: Vamos Argentina!

Kick off in Brazil and in the Supreme Court: Vamos Argentina!

An ugly recession on the way

An ugly recession on the way

The recent changes in economic policies: whatever it takes to survive

The recent changes in economic policies: whatever it takes to survive

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