Experience and knowledge

to understand the economy and enhance finances

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Reports

We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.

Presentations

We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.

Consultations

We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.

Forecasting

We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.

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Last Reports

Lower Rates and a New Monetay Architecture

The Central Bank lowered the interest rate three times in less than a month. It went from 70% to 40%, which is quite unusual. Especially for a situation where the volatility is not what it used to be, for example, in June 2022. Inflation is decreasing, and so are expectations. However, 40% implies a negative interest rate under all circumstances. As we mentioned on previous occasions, the negative rate is possible because there is a strict currency control in place, indicating that despite libertarian philosophy, there is no rush to exit. The rate cut aims to achieve two important things: stimulate credit to help economic activity and reduce endogenous money issuance, meaning the interest on repos.

Base Scenario April 2024

It seems that the government has no plans to remove FX restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a shock stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We changed the exchange rate unification that we had projected in July to December. For the next few months, we think that the crawling peg will continue at 2% until the harvest ends and then there will be a slight acceleration. By the end of the year, we see a dollar of 1,600 pesos with the unified market. The magnitude of the FX spread will depend on whether the government relaxes the restrictions on the Blue-Chip Swap or not. In the first case it can rise more than in the second.

Very Good First 5 Months, Now Policy Will Be More Challenging

In the first months of Javier Milei’s economy, everything went as planned. The efficient management of the government deactivated the risk of hyperinflation in the context of one of the worst inheritances in memory. The data show that the country risk fell by half, Argentine stocks measured in dollars skyrocketed and public opinion bore a severe recession. At the macro level, the Central Bank bought more than 15,000 million reserves and the Treasury had a first quarter of financial surplus with a high probability that we will see a fourth month in April. Inflation, although still very high, reached lower values than we estimated at the beginning of the year. The realignment of relative prices is not over, but it is underway. The business community accompanied and Wall Street too, including businessmen like Elon Musk.

Midweek 9 de Mayo de 2024

La inflación sigue bajando en los próximos meses. La inflación de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires marcó 9.8% en abril. Nosotros tenemos para la que publicará el INDEC la semana que viene un 9% con riesgo a la baja. Usando los ponderadores nacionales para los precios de la Ciudad (un supuesto razonable, pero no perfecto), la inflación sería de 8.2%. Mayo va a tener una inflación todavía menor por dos razones. La dinámica es claramente mejor y el cambio de estrategia de precios regulados (posponer suba de impuesto a combustibles y no ajustes por inflación) van a ayudar. La discrecionalidad de las medidas no gustó, pero eso es harina de otro costal.

Support for Reforms in the Lower House, More Rate Cuts and Less Subsidy Cuts

Last week was a good one for the government’s agenda. The most important thing was “Ley Bases” reform bill’s approval in the Lower House. As expected, it was a bit bumpy, but it worked out. The numbers for the Senate are not entirely clear, but our view is that there is a better chance of approval than rejection. But politics is much more difficult to forecast than economic variables. If approved, there will be good news on the fiscal side with the reestablishment of income tax, tax amnesty, moratorium and a new personal property tax scheme in which many taxpayers can advance payments for the next 5 years. There is also an adjustment in brackets for single-tax payers, a lifeline for those self-employed workers who were shaken by inflation.

Articles

Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….

About Us

Miguel A. Kiguel

Ph.D. en Economía

Director

Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL

With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.

He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.

He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.

Andrés Borenstein

Mg. en Finanzas

Chief economist

Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Master in Finance from the Torcuato Di Tella University. He has been an adjunct professor at UBA since 2002 and a visiting professor at UTDT since 2006.

He was chief economist for Argentina at BTG Pactual and economist for South America at the British Embassy based in Buenos Aires.

He was an economic journalist at Clarín and El Economista and was a member of the boards of directors of various companies.

Author of the book “Puede fallar: Economía y comunicación en 40 años de democracia” with Gabriel Llorens Rocha.

Author of the podcast “La economía en 3 minutos.”

Alejandro Giacoia

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UBA).

Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella).

Delfina Colacilli

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UBA).

Studying a Master’s Degree in Economics (UBA).

Rafael Aguilar

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UBA).

He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair

Pamela Morales

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA)

Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA.

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