Experience and knowledge

to understand the economy and enhance finances

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Reports

We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.

Presentations

We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.

Consultations

We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.

Forecasting

We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.

Contact Us

Last Reports

After a Good Week for the Government, on to a New Phase

The week ended on a positive note. Inflation was the lowest in 24 months and beyond the rise in utilities, the core CPI at 3.7% was a goal from the middle of the field. The OK from the IMF board was a given, but it is always good to confirm it. And the approval of the “Ley Bases” reform bill is the crowning of a 6-month process in which the project was reduced by 60% and where many things that the government wanted to do were left along the way. The government could not bend the will of the lovers of the status quo (politicians, businessmen and unions) on some issues. Surprisingly, it could not restore income tax for the wealthiest workers, something that lacks common sense and can generate fiscal problems.

Midweek 13 de junio de 2024

De la motosierra al bisturí. Con ley Bases y Paquete fiscal hay un panorama más claro, pero no es la panacea. Es claro que el mercado, el gobierno y la sostenibilidad de la situación económica y política descansan en la aprobación (ahora concretada) de estas dos leyes. Pero los problemas que vemos en términos de pocos instrumentos para muchos problemas no se acaban con la victoria política que de todas maneras dejó sabor amargo por la caída de ganancias y en menor medida bienes personales. Queda por ver si con la pérdida de recursos que es no tener ganancias si se avanza con la baja del impuesto PAIS o cómo se reemplaza. La otra gran incógnita es sobre las finanzas provinciales. En la macro, tenemos que ver como plantea el Ministro de Economía la Fase 2 que a nuestro criterio es una fase sin motosierra, pero con bisturí.

Base Scenario May 2024

The government does not plan to remove exchange restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We think that exchange rate unification can occur in December. For the next few months we estimate that the crawling peg will continue at 2%. By the end of the year we see a dollar of 1,560 pesos with the unified market. The alternative we see to this scenario is that if the BCRA fails to accumulate reserves, it will have to float the exchange rate before December.

Overreaction?

In the last two weeks, the financial market has faced one setback after another. The Blue Chip Swap dollar jumped from under 1,100 pesos to over 1,300. The other dollars (MEP and parallel) followed a similar trajectory. We do not see this as concerning. Perhaps more worrying is the fact that sovereign debt prices fell to the point where the country risk climbed back to almost 1,600 points after touching 1,200 or 12 percentage points. Argentine stocks, which had experienced a significant rally, also gave back some of their gains.

Midweek 6 de junio de 2024

Lo del dólar no es grave, pero el gobierno debería dar alguna señal. La suba del MEP y CCL no es un tema que haga descarrilar el plan económico. En Econviews siempre tuvimos un aumento de brecha en los pronósticos, aunque más gradual de lo que terminó sucediendo. El tema es que con el plano político complicado y el gobierno que no termina de decir cómo va a salir del cepo ni da muchas precisiones de cómo va a hacer sostenible la política cambiaria y monetaria, el mercado le cobra esa incertidumbre. Una palabra del gobierno que ayude a tener pistas puede ser clave en esta situación.

Articles

Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….

About Us

Miguel A. Kiguel

Ph.D. en Economía

Director

Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL

With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.

He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.

He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.

Andrés Borenstein

Mg. en Finanzas

Chief economist

Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Master in Finance from the Torcuato Di Tella University. He has been an adjunct professor at UBA since 2002 and a visiting professor at UTDT since 2006.

He was chief economist for Argentina at BTG Pactual and economist for South America at the British Embassy based in Buenos Aires.

He was an economic journalist at Clarín and El Economista and was a member of the boards of directors of various companies.

Author of the book “Puede fallar: Economía y comunicación en 40 años de democracia” with Gabriel Llorens Rocha.

Author of the podcast “La economía en 3 minutos.”

Alejandro Giacoia

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UBA).

Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)

Pamela Morales

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA)

Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA

Rafael Aguilar

Economist

Bachelor of Economics (UBA).

He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair

Leila García

Analyst

Bachelor student in economics (UBA)

Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History

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