Informes Mensuales

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

Mayo 2015
The election season is now under full swing. Macri scored victories in the city de of Buenos Aires and in Mendoza, while Scioli is consolidating its leading position within the official Peronist party (FPV) that won in Rio Negro and in Salta. At the moment, it looks that the election is heading towards a two man rac...

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

Febrero 2015
As the Kirchner administration enters into its final year, the economic team appears to have made several strategic decisions that will have key effects on economic developments.  These decisions should be seen as part of a broad political agenda in which the Government’s main objective is to preserve its imag...

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Noviembre 2014
In the last months, there were marked cycles in the evolution of the blue exchange rate, in which it first entered in “panic mode” generating headlines of a runaway depreciation that in the end did not happen, as was the case in mid-October when the currency started an appreciating trend. This pattern has been the r...

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

Octubre 2014
The changes at the Central Bank are taking place at a critical time: international reserves are once again dropping with a gloomy outlook for the fourth quarter and are likely to end the year at around 25 billion dollars, the currency is getting deeper in overvaluation territory and there is no clue about how the au...

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Septiembre 2014
The economy is all of a sudden back in the middle of a storm. There are pressures on the exchange rate that is now overvalued, the spread on the parallel exchange rate has increased to 70%, while international reserves are falling again. Government officials are going around the world (to China, Europe and the US) e...