Monthly

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

Mayo 2015

The election season is now under full swing. Macri scored victories in the city de of Buenos Aires and in Mendoza, while Scioli is consolidating its leading position within the official Peronist party (FPV) that won in Rio Negro and in Salta. At the moment, it looks that the election is heading towards a two man rac...

How to get rid of the “cepo”

Abril 2015

The economy once again provided some positive surprises as the exchange rates remained stable, inflation slowed down, and there was a big rally in the price of Argentine bonds and stocks. All these took place in spite of the lack of economic growth and the difficulties to avoid further drops in international reserve...

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

Marzo 2015

Will in the end be a presidential race between Macri and Scioli? The most recent polls are indicating that this is likely to be the case, as Scioli is strengthening its stance in the official camp, the FPV, while Macri is gaining ground.

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

Febrero 2015

As the Kirchner administration enters into its final year, the economic team appears to have made several strategic decisions that will have key effects on economic developments. These decisions should be seen as part of a broad political agenda in which the Government’s main objective is to preserve its imag...

The truth behind the exchange rate

Enero 2015

The year ends on a strange note: while the EM world is in turmoil and the currencies are depreciating everywhere, Argentina has managed to stabilize the parallel exchange rate and insists in keeping the official exchange rate quasi-fixed in an effort to control inflation. The question at this stage is whether this s...

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Diciembre 2014

International reserves are now at center stage once more. Creative accounting, short-term borrowing and the postponement of the payment of imports have helped to increase the headline figure to around USD 29 billion. Just without these gimmicks they would only be USD 22 billion. The market players, for reasons th...

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Noviembre 2014

In the last months, there were marked cycles in the evolution of the blue exchange rate, in which it first entered in “panic mode” generating headlines of a runaway depreciation that in the end did not happen, as was the case in mid-October when the currency started an appreciating trend. This pattern has been the r...

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

Octubre 2014

The changes at the Central Bank are taking place at a critical time: international reserves are once again dropping with a gloomy outlook for the fourth quarter and are likely to end the year at around 25 billion dollars, the currency is getting deeper in overvaluation territory and there is no clue about how the au...

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Septiembre 2014

The economy is all of a sudden back in the middle of a storm. There are pressures on the exchange rate that is now overvalued, the spread on the parallel exchange rate has increased to 70%, while international reserves are falling again. Government officials are going around the world (to China, Europe and the US) e...

Toying with default: How long can it last?

Agosto 2014

In the end there was a default, though not a standard one. Argentina is solvent and it has shown ability and willingness to pay. The Government is even arguing that the country is not in default, as it transferred the funds to service the Discounts bonds to the account that the Bank of New York (BoNY) has at the Cen...

Informes Mensuales

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook

How to get rid of the “cepo”

How to get rid of the “cepo”

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

Market optimism in spite of the challenges for the transition

The truth behind the exchange rate

The truth behind the exchange rate

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Will there be enough reserves in 2015?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Toying with default: How long can it last?

Toying with default: How long can it last?

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