Monthly

Informes Mensuales

A better economic outlook in a more complex political environment

Octubre 2012
There are clear signs that economic activity has reached a floor, that July marked a turning point and that the economy is undergoing an anemic recovery. Most likely growth will remain well below the 3.26% rate which is the trigger for the payment of the GDP warrant next year, but nevertheless we have revised ...

Mid-term macro assessment: Goodbye growth, hello stagflation

Julio 2012
During the first semester there has been a sharp deterioration in the overall macroeconomic performance. While external factors have played a role, most of the explanation lies on domestic economic conditions and policies. The most recent figures show a drop in industrial production, investment, construction, ...

Everything you need to know about the parallel exchange rate

Junio 2012
The depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is taking center stage and is raising questions about what does it mean, whether it is sustainable at these levels and about the implications that it has for inflation, interest rates, growth and imports. More importantly, it also raises questions about what polic...