Monthly

Informes Mensuales

Economic perspectives for the summertime

Diciembre 2019

As Alberto Fernandez became the new President, new questions arise about whether he will be in control, about how much will Cristina’s influence in the new administration and about what types of policies he will implement during his tenure. So far there are mixed signals; as one the hand he looks like a moderate lea...

Debt: A Time of Critical Decisions

Noviembre 2019

While Alberto Fernández won the Presidential election, as expected, the final results brought some relief to the Macri camp, especially because he lost by a much smaller margin than in the primaries (only eight percentage points compared with 17 points in the primaries). In addition, Juntos por el Cambio (Macr...

The countdown for economic decisions has begun

Octubre 2019

The announcement of debt reprofilement and FX controls last month were effective to moderate the fall in international reserves and contain the depreciation of the official exchange rate, which was only 3.7% since then. The CB added new FX controls on October and the Peso stands nowadays near 58.30. For individuals ...

Dollars and Debt: what's next?

Septiembre 2019

The primaries have clearly marked a turning point for financial stability and economic performance: investors were in shock and confidence all but disappeared, in a matter of hours Argentine credit spreads went through the roof, all financing dried up and the result was that Argentina could not rollover its deb...

Surprising election results. What comes next?

Agosto 2019

The landslide victory of the Fernandez ticket in the primaries has been an unexpected result that shook financial markets and introduced a high level of uncertainty regarding the evolution of economic and financial variables during the transition to December 10th, when the inauguration of the new president takes pla...

The exchange rate and the countdown to primaries

Julio 2019

A trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur was finally announced in late June. It should drive the creation of trade, the access to cheaper inputs, the specialization to a higher scale of certain sectors and a greater integration of local firms to global value chains. The agreement promotes a greater regul...

Surprise VPs: what does it mean for the economy?

Junio 2019

May was a positive month regarding the FX front after the CB announced on April 29th that is allowed to intervene in the FX market discretionally and the Peso reacted positively: it fluctuated around 45.00 ARS/USD since then, even when other emerging-market currencies were depreciating. So far, the monetary entity d...

FX intervention does make a difference

Mayo 2019

On the monetary front, the contractive bias of the program was first reinforced by freezing the floor and ceiling of the non-intervention zone (NIZ) at the current levels until the end of the year and by preventing the purchase of reserves until June 30th. However, since end-April the Central Bank is allowed interve...

The political forces preparing to campaign

Abril 2019

At the beginning of April, FX instability returned and the Peso weakened to almost 44.00. The Central Bank used dollar futures and increased the interest rate to 68.4% in order to contain the depreciation. FX proceeds from the harvest and Treasury's FX daily auctions for USD 60 million helped to stabilize the curren...

The key to the elections: FX stability

Marzo 2019

This year began better than expected for the Argentine economy but the release of January’s inflation figure in mid-February, which was higher than expected (2.9% m/m, while the market was expecting 2.5%), meant a turning point. From that moment, the exchange rate became more volatile and re-entered in the Non-Inter...

Informes Mensuales

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