Monthly

Informes Mensuales

Sweat and tears on the way to 2016… and what happens next?

Noviembre 2014
In the last months, there were marked cycles in the evolution of the blue exchange rate, in which it first entered in “panic mode” generating headlines of a runaway depreciation that in the end did not happen, as was the case in mid-October when the currency started an appreciating trend. This pattern has been the r...

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

Octubre 2014
The changes at the Central Bank are taking place at a critical time: international reserves are once again dropping with a gloomy outlook for the fourth quarter and are likely to end the year at around 25 billion dollars, the currency is getting deeper in overvaluation territory and there is no clue about how the au...

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Septiembre 2014
The economy is all of a sudden back in the middle of a storm. There are pressures on the exchange rate that is now overvalued, the spread on the parallel exchange rate has increased to 70%, while international reserves are falling again. Government officials are going around the world (to China, Europe and the US) e...

Kick off in Brazil and in the Supreme Court: Vamos Argentina!

Junio 2014
Recent economic developments: recession, exchange rate and debt The short term outlook is generating more questions than answers, as the economic performance is dominated by high inflation, a recession which is relative deep in many sectors, pressures on international reserves that are now temporarily rising t...

The recent changes in economic policies: whatever it takes to survive

Abril 2014
Will the Government do whatever it takes to increase reserves, avoid an external crisis and reach the end of its mandate in one piece? Based on the recent evidence, the answer is unambiguously yes. It is now resorting to policies that were demonized during the last ten years, such as large increases in interest rate...