Monthly

What's next on monetary policy and exchange rate policies?

Septiembre 2018

There was another round of run on the currency during August, which was caused largely by local events. Although other emerging-markets currencies underperformed and put extra pressure on the exchange rate, the Argentine Peso was the worst: YTD it depreciated more than 100%, followed only by the Turkish Lira (75%). ...

Between a rock and a hard place

Agosto 2018

Argentina has been shocked due to the notebooks affair, which describes in detail the payments of many contractors to the Kirchner administration. The affair has a variety of implications, which go in opposite directions. On the political front, it does provide some relief to the government as it diverts the attenti...

Recalculating: new policies, new economic outcomes

Julio 2018

In Argentina the dollar is king, as some key indicators such as consumer confidence, the government’s positive image and financial stability dance at its tune. There are few countries where consumers, investors and politicians follow so closely the evolution of the exchange rate and where devaluations can topple gov...

The IMF is here: what does it imply for the economy

Junio 2018

The announcement a month ago that Argentina was resorting to the IMF was not enough to calm the markets. The final announcement that the IMF package would exceed USD 50 billion, an amount that was 11 times the quota and that far exceeded even the most optimistic estimates, did little to appease them. The press...

Waiting for the IMF

Mayo 2018

The strategy of a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit that the government implemented since the outset had always had one weakness: it depended on external financing. Confidence was of the essence. Unfortunately, the increase in US interest rates, the strengthening of the US dollar combined with some domes...

The Central Bank in the spotlight

Abril 2018

In a sudden change in policy in March, the Central Bank moved away from the floating exchange rate and decided to intervene to stabilize it at around AR$ 20.20, following three months in which the depreciation of the currency accumulated almost 20%. We believe that this change in policy will be sustained for the nex...

Where do we stand on monetary policy?

Marzo 2018

The last few months have been difficult for the Macri administration on the economic and political fronts. Its popularity dropped to the pre-October election levels of around 46% after surging in late October and November, consumer confidence suffered, and the overall mood among investors and the business community ...

What to expect after the December shockwaves

Febrero 2018

The year began as the previous one had finished, with a shaken exchange market and growing uncertainty as to whether inflation will be able to moderate at the desired pace. The exchange rate continued to depreciate in January (4.7%) and so far this month has surpassed 20.00 ARS/USD, without the intervention of the ...

The pros and cons of changing the inflation targets

Enero 2018

December was a hectic month for Macri’s administration, with relevant news in the economic, social and political fronts. On the one hand, the Government succeeded in passing the 2018 Budget, the tax reform and the Pension Reform in the Lower House. Although it was finally approved, the Pension Reform has drawn criti...

What can we expect for the next two years

Diciembre 2017

In November the Government took advantage of the great results in general elections of October and presented a package of reforms. Some of them have been already approved by the Senate and will be discussed in the Lower House. The tax reform stands out: it includes a new financial revenues tax for individuals, chang...

Informes Mensuales

What's next on monetary policy and exchange rate policies?

What's next on monetary policy and exchange rate policies?

Between a rock and a hard place

Between a rock and a hard place

Recalculating: new policies, new economic outcomes

Recalculating: new policies, new economic outcomes

The IMF is here: what does it imply for the economy

The IMF is here: what does it imply for the economy

Waiting for the IMF

Waiting for the IMF

The Central Bank in the spotlight

The Central Bank in the spotlight

Where do we stand on monetary policy?

Where do we stand on monetary policy?

What to expect after the December shockwaves

What to expect after the December shockwaves

The pros and cons of changing the inflation targets

The pros and cons of changing the inflation targets

What can we expect for the next two years

What can we expect for the next two years

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