Monthly

Informes Mensuales

The economy after the YPF nationalization: the good, the bad and the ugly

The economy after the YPF nationalization: the good, the bad and the ugly

Mayo 2012
Is the expropriation of YPF a surprise or is part of a pattern? A little bit of both. It is in line with other extemporaneous decisions such as the introduction of the variable export taxes, the nationalization of the pension funds, the use of reserves to pay the debt, and the strict introduction of import and forei...

Argenzuela?

Argenzuela?

Abril 2012
There have been signs in recent months of a marked deterioration in the business environment, as the Government has been broadening the use of foreign exchange and import controls and has open the possibility of intervening or nationalizing YPF. It all started last October in response to pressures on the peso, ...

A new look at the deterioration of the external accounts

A new look at the deterioration of the external accounts

Marzo 2012
The external accounts surplus and the resulting accumulation of international reserves have been key pillars of macroeconomic stability in Argentina in recent years. Last year, for the first time in the Kirchner’s era, international reserves fell by around US$ 6 billion, and this reduction took place in ...

An assessment of fiscal and financial constraints in provinces

An assessment of fiscal and financial constraints in provinces

Febrero 2012
It seems clear that the fiscal situation of the provinces has become tighter in recent years, an issue that has raised questions about the ability to service their debt. This report argues that most provinces are only running small deficits following an election year, and while the fiscal situation is tighter th...

Desperately seeking dollars: is the government overreacting?

Desperately seeking dollars: is the government overreacting?

Enero 2012
The draconian foreign exchange restrictions that the government has been implementing in recent months are raising questions about their motivation, their possible economic implications and the likelihood that they could be intensified in the near future (à la Venezuela). The imposition of the controls indicates...

New cabinet, old economic recipes, but far from a rose garden

New cabinet, old economic recipes, but far from a rose garden

Diciembre 2011
Lorenzino, the new Economic Minister, will be the visible figure of the government and his main role is likely to be in the international side, dealing with the G-20 issues and leading the negotiations with the IMF, the Paris Club and the multilateral Banks. His choice indicates that Cristina wants some continui...

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