Informes Mensuales

The debt and exchange rate traps: is there a way out?

Octubre 2014
The changes at the Central Bank are taking place at a critical time: international reserves are once again dropping with a gloomy outlook for the fourth quarter and are likely to end the year at around 25 billion dollars, the currency is getting deeper in overvaluation territory and there is no clue about how the au...

A month after default: bond prices up, the economy down

Septiembre 2014
The economy is all of a sudden back in the middle of a storm. There are pressures on the exchange rate that is now overvalued, the spread on the parallel exchange rate has increased to 70%, while international reserves are falling again. Government officials are going around the world (to China, Europe and the US) e...

Kick off in Brazil and in the Supreme Court: Vamos Argentina!

Junio 2014
Recent economic developments: recession, exchange rate and debt The short term outlook is generating more questions than answers, as the economic performance is dominated by high inflation, a recession which is relative deep in many sectors, pressures on international reserves that are now temporarily rising t...

The recent changes in economic policies: whatever it takes to survive

Abril 2014
Will the Government do whatever it takes to increase reserves, avoid an external crisis and reach the end of its mandate in one piece? Based on the recent evidence, the answer is unambiguously yes. It is now resorting to policies that were demonized during the last ten years, such as large increases in interest rate...

The exchange rate dilemma: torn between inflation and reserves

Febrero 2014
Two issues have dominated recent economic developments: inflation which in recent months has been rising exceeding 5% in January, and the drop in international reserves, that fell more than 13 billion dollars in 2013 to reach 30.5 billion dollars, and fell again in January around 2.5 billion dollars. The excha...

Argentina’s Economy: an unpleasant journey to 2015

Enero 2014
In many ways 2013 will be remembered as the year that the government would like to forget. Cristina suffered a major loss in the mid-term elections, which put an end to any remaining hope to run in the 2015 Presidential elections. Two weather related events uncovered the depth of the energy crisis and of the underin...