In a Year of Consolidation, Lifting FX Controls Can Wait
The year begins with lots of hope and some challenges. 2024 left important achievements, such as the impressive improvement in fiscal accounts, or the decrease in inflation and the exchange rate spread. At the same time, the economy is beginning to show a path of recovery, and after an initial deterioration, real wages and poverty […]
The Best and Worst of 2024
2024 is coming to an end and at Econviews we wanted to finish by summarizing the best and worst of the year. It was undoubtedly a year that we will remember and with the pass of time we will be able to put it in historical context. For now, this list is a contribution so […]
The Keys to Move From Stabilization to Growth
In his speech to evaluate his first year in office, Milei showed satisfaction with the achievements obtained, and it was made in a calmer tone than we are used to, which is comforting. It was clear that 2024 was the year of stabilization and of surfing the crisis left by the previous government, and 2025 […]
A Year of the “Plan Peluca”
A year ago, Argentina was gripped by uncertainty and fears of a massive crisis. Milei’s first goal was to avoid the country falling in a major disaster, but there were widespread concerns. His government lacked executive experience, held a marked minority in Congress, had no governors or mayors from his party, and faced a fragile […]
A Challenging but Achievable Financial Program
As the year comes to an end, questions arise about whether Argentina has the funds to meet its 2025 debt obligations. The financial needs seem daunting—around $17 billion in dollar-denominated requirements and 11% of GDP in peso debt. However, upon closer inspection, the outlook appears more manageable, and unless a “black swan” event occurs, there […]
Opening Up the Economy… to Lower Inflation or to Be More Efficient?
There is no doubt that Argentina is a very closed economy. Imports represent only 14% of GDP, when the regional average is 25% of GDP.
It’s MAGA: Make Argentina Great Again
The meeting between Milei and Trump had an impact because it took place just a week after the elections, and because Milei was the first president to meet with the president-elect since then. The meeting was framed in a context where the government has been doing well. The fiscal balance is consolidated as non-negotiable, inflation […]
A Crucial Test for Milei: The Aerolíneas Conflict and the Legacy of Thatcher and Reagan
The conflict between Milei’s government and Aerolíneas Argentinas, along with Intercargo, is not merely a clash with a unionized sector or part of a budget-cutting plan; it’s a pivotal battle to determine whether a regime change can be achieved—a watershed moment for advancing other structural reforms. While the macroeconomic program is central to bringing down […]
A Unique Interest Rate Policy That Continues to Lower Real Debt
The government is on a winning streak, in terms of country risk, the exchange rate spread and inflation. There is no doubt that the plan has gained credibility over time and that inflation has been falling faster than many of us expected. Given this context, it was to some extent expected that the Central Bank […]
Argentine Bonds Are Rallying, and Country Risk Fell Below 1,000 Points
The country risk dropped to 967 basis points last Friday. It is the lowest level since before the 2019 primary elections. At the beginning of the year, we had forecast that it could reach 800 bps in December, and if the trend continues this may happen. Our optimism, at that time and now, is based […]