Activity, Rates and Inflation
What the Data Says About Economic Activity. The debate over economic activity gained intensity following the publication of the 2025 Q4 GDP and the January EMAE (Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity), which showed that the aggregate economy is growing. In January, even lagging sectors such as industry and construction showed a monthly recovery. However, […]
Rate Relief, as Long as the Dollar Holds
It is still too early to draw conclusions, but there are signs that the Government is shifting its monetary policy stance. Despite several officials doubling down in recent weeks to argue that the economy is growing and that jobs are not being lost, this week’s data and the policy decisions themselves challenge that narrative. The […]
Between Inflation and the Aftermath of Argentina Week
Last week kicked off with high hopes around the Argentina Week in New York and ended on a sour note with the February inflation print. The timing for the event was far from ideal — the Government went out to sell the country to the world while investors had one eye glued to the Middle […]
Is the Tailwind Fading?
The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on the very favorable international environment that the Argentine economy had been riding. Through February, global markets were showing a strong appetite for risk assets and the dollar was weakening, which was pushing up emerging market currencies and compressing credit spreads to levels not seen […]
The Week AI Stopped Being Abstract
Taking advantage of a relatively quiet local macro environment, we turned our focus toward the global front. In just one week: IBM suffered its worst stock market decline in 26 years, a profitable digital payments company laid off 40% of its workforce, and a hypothetical report on mass unemployment went viral on Wall Street. The […]
The Challenge Is to Keep Fate an Isolated Case
The closure of the Fate tire plant and the debate over labor reform have placed growing concerns about jobs and wages at the center of the stage. The latest survey from the University of San Andrés confirms this shift: according to public opinion, low wages are now the main problem affecting the country, followed closely […]
A Bittersweet Week
The week in the Argentine economy left a bittersweet taste. On one hand, the good news was that the Senate passed the labor reform bill and the Central Bank (BCRA) continued to buy dollars at a steady pace. However, at the same time, inflation served as a reminder that the game was far from over […]
After a Dull January, Emotions Run High in February
January closed with a highly positive balance for the Argentine economy. After moving past the electoral noise and with a macroeconomy showing signs of stabilization, the Government managed to make significant progress in reserve accumulation, brought country risk down to the 500-point range, and kept the exchange rate under control. However, February has begun with […]
Ecuadorian Signals: Issue Now or Wait?
Country risk reached its lowest level since June 2018 last week. The reserve accumulation program was the final push the indicator needed to seek new lows. The market saw results and rewarded them: the Central Bank added USD 1,100 million in January, and the index broke below the 500-basis-point mark.
A Change of Model or an Inevitable Shift?
Since the Milei administration took office, a fierce debate has opened up regarding the future of industry and employment. On one side are those arguing that the economic program is causing an “industricide” and higher unemployment, pressing for the economy to remain protected. On the other side are the free-market fundamentalists who lean towards the […]