An Exchange-Rate Anchor Without Reserves
November’s inflation print came in broadly in line with expectations, but it still raised a yellow flag. It is not alarming for now, although the trend over the past six months has clearly been upward. Core inflation, which better captures underlying dynamics, rose to 2.6%, its highest level since April, and year-on-year inflation accelerated […]
Returning to the Markets
As we anticipated in our last editorial, the government announced with great fanfare that Argentina will once again place dollar-denominated debt. The January maturities accelerated the timeline, and “Toto” decided to step onto the field to seek financing in the local market.
In Search of Dollars for the January Payment
As the year-end toast approaches, the market is beginning to eye the January calendar with some concern. And with good reason: Argentina faces capital and interest maturities in foreign currency totaling around USD 4.2 billion, and the Treasury’s dollar coffers are empty. There is no time to buy dollars in the market, nor has the […]
Our View
Rates keep falling. Short-term interest rates (repos and caución) have stabilized around 20%, with the Central Bank lowering the floor to 20% in the simultáneas (reverse repo) operations market. This pulled the rest of the curve downward and improves the rate at which the Treasury will be able to roll over its debt in tomorrow’s […]
Trade Agreement: The Biggest Gain Is Institutional
The framework agreement on trade and investment with the United States was finally announced. It is not a free trade agreement nor a deep accord endorsed by the Congresses of both countries, but rather a government-to-government understanding aimed at boosting the bilateral relationship and strengthening U.S. influence in Argentina, which Washington views as a strategic […]
From Relief to the Challenge of Macroeconomic Consistency
Milei’s economic program seems to have entered a new phase. After the confidence shock triggered by the election victory, signs of a more normalized economy are starting to appear, with interest rates falling to more sustainable levels — both for public debt and for overall economic activity.
What Could Change in the Economic Program
The surprising and impressive victory of LLA in the elections completely reshaped the political and economic landscape. The ruling coalition exceeded its minimum goal (securing one-third of the Lower House) and, together with PRO, also achieved one-third of the Senate—leaving Peronism without a majority in that chamber for the first time since the return of […]
The End of the Campaign, the Beginning of Reality
Election day has finally arrived. The government managed to keep the dollar within the target band, even if the exchange rate stayed close to its upper limit. To do so, it had to sweat it out and rely on support from the U.S. Treasury, which sold a significant amount of dollars. Still, that help wasn’t […]
Between the Rescue and the Vote
The economy remains in a state of turbulence as the country prepares for the legislative elections. While inflation is still under control and no one doubts that fiscal balance will be maintained, concerns persist about the exchange rate, the stagnation of domestic demand, the Central Bank’s lack of control over both the level and volatility […]
Bessent Buys Pesos: Relief and Opportunity
When everything seemed to be spiraling out of control, the “American rescue” reappeared. Until las Thursday afternoon, the Argentine Treasury had been losing dollars at a worrying pace: it sold almost everything it had bought at the end of September to contain the dollar, and the Central Bank was preparing to step in. But as […]