The End of the Campaign, the Beginning of Reality
Election day has finally arrived. The government managed to keep the dollar within the target band, even if the exchange rate stayed close to its upper limit. To do so, it had to sweat it out and rely on support from the U.S. Treasury, which sold a significant amount of dollars. Still, that help wasn’t […]
Between the Rescue and the Vote
The economy remains in a state of turbulence as the country prepares for the legislative elections. While inflation is still under control and no one doubts that fiscal balance will be maintained, concerns persist about the exchange rate, the stagnation of domestic demand, the Central Bank’s lack of control over both the level and volatility […]
Bessent Buys Pesos: Relief and Opportunity
When everything seemed to be spiraling out of control, the “American rescue” reappeared. Until las Thursday afternoon, the Argentine Treasury had been losing dollars at a worrying pace: it sold almost everything it had bought at the end of September to contain the dollar, and the Central Bank was preparing to step in. But as […]
Holding the Line
The government has entered survival mode, taking risks that could mortgage the future. Trump’s rescue package created the conditions to accumulate dollars, especially since it was accompanied by the temporary elimination of export taxes on the agricultural sector. The farm sector delivered, with USD 6.3 billion in export proceeds, but only about USD 2.3 billion […]
A U.S. Lifeline and a Change of Strategy?
After the storm came some relief, thanks to the United States and the farm sector. Once again, the Government pulled an ace from its sleeve to avoid what could have been the beginning of a crisis. A window of opportunity has opened. The question is whether this time the Government will know how to use […]
The U.S. Gives Argentina a Window to Recalibrate the Program
The economic outlook has deteriorated exponentially in recent days. The poor election result in Buenos Aires Province laid bare the main weaknesses of Milei’s program: politics and reserves. Meanwhile, the government insists that the problem stems solely from the so-called “kuka risk” (political risk). The situation was becoming critical, and with today’s announcements, the government […]
Reserves Become the New Priority
The election in the province of Buenos Aires changed everything. Stocks plummeted, with bank shares falling by as much as 25%, while country risk climbed above 1,100 basis points, effectively ruling out any chance of market access in the coming months. The good news was that the exchange rate did not skyrocket. It initially depreciated […]
When Political Objectives Do Not Go Hand in Hand With the Economy
Yesterday’s elections in the province of Buenos Aires resulted in a resounding victory for Fuerza Patria (Kirchnerism), which defeated La Libertad Avanza by more than 13 percentage points. Although Peronism was expected to perform well, the outcome was far from what the polls had predicted.
Markets Remain on Edge Ahead of Elections
Argentina has fully entered election mode and, as usual, politics is shaping the economy. But it’s not just about politics: President Milei’s government is dealing with a broader mix that includes a corruption scandal within his inner circle, defeats in Congress, and unforced errors in economic policy. All this is unfolding in a context of […]
The Long and Winding Road to the Elections
Another turbulent week has passed in Argentina. There are two months left until the general elections, and just two weeks until the Buenos Aires provincial elections. Until then, noise and volatility will likely remain the main characters. Politics is playing its game, but on the economic front the field has also been muddied.