The Government Is Still Focused On Inflation
There is no second chance to make a good first impression. After implementing the new floating-withing-bands scheme, the government’s main objective was to avoid an overshooting of the exchange rate and, thereby, fuel the narrative that there was no step devaluation and that prices should not be adjusted.
The IMF Program and Monetary Policy
The monetary policy outlined in the new program shows a shift toward a more conventional framework. Targets are now set for traditional monetary aggregates, such as the traditional monetary base or M2, instead of capping the broad monetary base — another Argentine invention that does not appear in any textbook. The rigid 1% monthly crawling […]
A Strong Start. What Comes Next?
The first few days without capital controls were, without a doubt, a success for the government. The market reacted very positively to the announcements: far from testing the upper bound, the exchange rate settled closer to the lower band. The Merval index started off strong, later gave up some ground, but bonds remained firm and […]
Leaving the Cepo
The government has announced the new exchange rate regime. At Econviews, we believe these measures are very positive, regardless of their potential short-term effects. The first stage of the stabilization plan had run its course, and a recalibration of the program was necessary.
A Tough Negotiation Amid Global Crash
Another tough week for the government. As if dealing with Argentina wasn’t enough, the global context just got more complicated. The return of Trump went from being huge news to a major headache—not only because of the tariff policies, but also because expectations of a sharp recession triggered a global stock market drop, and the […]
The Government’s Plan in Enigma Mode
The government has found itself in a dilemma that now seems difficult to resolve. The strategy was diametrically different from Macri’s. Quick on fiscal matters, but with infinite patience to lift FX controls. However, the exchange rate problem never stopped being there, and managing expectations and timing to resolve it has become crucial.
Trump Is Sending Markets Into Turmoil With No Clear Endgame
Trump’s second term is much more aggresive than his first. Just two months after taking office, he has already managed to throw the market into turmoil. According to his own words, his goal is to “rebuild the country,” eliminate the trade deficit, boost production, and prioritize local jobs. But his constant back-and-forth—especially regarding tariffs—has been […]
The IMF, Exchange Rate Policy, and the Cepo
We are on the verge of an agreement with the IMF. With that backing, the Argentine government promises to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility and the lifting of capital controls before the end of the year. But how and when will this happen? For now, there are more questions than answers.
Too Many or Too Few Pesos? It Depends on How You Look at It
Some voices in the city and government offices claim that money printing has stopped, that there will be a shortage of pesos, and therefore, there’s no reason for the dollar to rise. But is it really true that money printing has ended and that there aren’t enough pesos? It depends.
The Second Half is a Struggle: Bring in the IMF
The last few weeks have been a real headache for the government. The Merval has been on a slide, accumulating a fall of more than 20% in dollars so far this year, and the country risk jumped more than 200 basis points to 780. The FX spread, which until a few months ago was plummeting, […]