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Reports
We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
Sigue la presión cambiaria. Pese a las tasas altas y la intervención en futuros, el dólar sigue subiendo. En julio pasó de la zona de $1,200 a $1,300, una suba del 9%. Es sintomática esta suba del dólar porque el gobierno está utilizando tasas de interés de corto plazo elevadas e intervención en el mercado de futuros para contenerlo, pero por ahora no está dando resultados. La buena noticia: desde que el dólar flota, el tipo de cambio real mejoró cerca de un 20%.
In recent days, short-term interest rate volatility has surged. Market rates swung between 18% and 70% in a short period, surprising markets and generating noise in the financial system. This was largely due to changes in monetary policy by the Central Bank, which removed key mechanisms for managing liquidity—tools that most central banks routinely use.
Tasas altas y volátiles. Tras la licitación de la semana pasada, en la que el Tesoro absorbió alrededor de $4.7 billones, las tasas de corto plazo se mantuvieron en niveles muy elevados y con alta volatilidad, arrastrando al resto de la curva. Se notó la falta de una ventanilla overnight, como existe en casi todos los países del mundo, que les permite a los bancos manejar su liquidez diaria. Hasta que este problema se corrija de alguna manera ingeniosa, la volatilidad seguirá. Aunque pensamos que al final prevalecerá el pragmatismo, porque la situación actual genera incertidumbre y atenta contra el crecimiento del crédito.
Monetary policy has been the weakest link in an otherwise orthodox and solid economic program. Over the past twenty months, there have been many back-and-forths. One clear example was when authorities claimed that there was no more money printing because the broad monetary base wasn’t growing. In reality, the traditional monetary base—the one that actually matters—was increasing steadily, and money was being printed. In fact, this was driving credit growth and the remonetization of the economy.
Una transición algo desordenada. Como anticipábamos, tras el fin del esquema de Lefis, los bancos quedaron con un exceso de liquidez, lo que llevó a que las tasas de corto plazo se desplomen y el dólar se escape. El Tesoro tuvo que salir con una nueva licitación de Lecaps para absorber pesos, ofreciendo rendimientos muy por encima de los del mercado. Al mismo tiempo, el Banco Central reintrodujo pases y volvió a intervenir en el mercado secundario de bonos para sostener las tasas. Todo esto generó mucha volatilidad, con tasas que pasaron de menos de 20% a 40%. Esperamos que los rendimientos se mantengan elevados.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History