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Reports
We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
In recent months, the government has been facing setbacks on both the political and economic fronts that are affecting its positive image. The latest figures show a 12.1% drop in the Government Confidence Index published by Universidad Di Tella, marking the third consecutive decline. In addition, surveys from Universidad de San Andrés indicate that approval of Javier Milei’s administration continues to fall, dropping to 36% (down from 39% in March) while disapproval rose to 61%.
Investors are watching Argentina cautiously. After two weeks under pressure, sovereign bonds turned green again and country risk dropped to around 550 basis points. The previous rise had gone against the trend in other emerging markets and came amid rumors of a possible operation with the World Bank and the IDB to guarantee bank loans. This was compounded by very weak economic activity data and a decline in polling numbers (confidence in the government fell 12.1% in March, and surveys such as those by Universidad de San Andrés and AtlasIntel-Bloomberg show a deterioration in the government’s image). All of this heightened investor concerns about the sustainability of the economic program at a time when the electoral calendar is already starting to come into focus.
Se aceleran las compras del BCRA. Con seis días hábiles por delante, abril ya se posiciona como el mes con mayor compra de dólares del año, superando los US$ 2,100 millones. El buen desempeño se explica, por un lado, por el saldo positivo de la balanza comercial, impulsada por exportaciones que crecen e importaciones que aún no recuperan el ritmo previo a las elecciones (el INDEC informó esta semana un superávit de US$ 2,500 millones en marzo), y esto sin capturar aun plenamente la mejora en los términos de intercambio derivada de la guerra. Por otro lado, siguen jugando a favor los flujos financieros y según el BCRA, todavía quedan ingresar unos US$ 3,000 millones de ONs, a lo que se suman los préstamos en dólares que crecen a un ritmo de US$ 1,000 millones por mes. Con este panorama, y la liquidación de divisas del agro empezando a acelerar, esperamos que el Central siga con la racha compradora en los próximos meses.
The data are becoming increasingly clear and are beginning to speak for themselves, pointing to a “two-speed” or bipolar economy. The problem for the government is that the sustainability of the program depends on growth reaching a broad share of the population. Instead, what we are seeing is that the winners so far are a handful of sectors—mining, energy, and agriculture—which do not generate much employment. The losers—construction, manufacturing, and services, which are the main job creators—are stagnating or contracting. Employment and wages are not driving growth, and mass consumption is suffering, as reflected in the sharp decline in the consumer confidence index and in some surveys on the government’s approval ratings.
Javier Milei’s economic program is going through a critical moment. Inflation has risen over the past 10 months, reaching a peak of 3.4% monthly in March. At the same time, there are clear signs of stagnation—or even contraction—in industrial production, construction, mass consumption, and employment. Wages have been consistently losing ground to inflation, resulting in a steady erosion of purchasing power. The consequence, visible in recent months, is a decline in government approval, with polls showing Milei’s negative image now exceeding 50%.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History