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Reports
We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
It is an open secret that a large part of the economy is not getting off the ground. Consumer spending is falling, according to the firms that track it, while construction, industry and commerce are sluggish. The sectors that are growing (mining, agriculture and energy) account for barely 13% of GDP, which is not enough to lift the economy as a whole. We are not talking about a crisis, as there have been at other times, but a large part of the economy is still suffering. In fact, the latest data are feeding the nervousness, because the second quarter is on track to close with a drop in GDP and the first numbers for July are not too encouraging either.
One of the possible reasons behind the weak level of activity in a large part of the economy is the stagnation of credit. In this sense, there are two issues being discussed: NPLs, which have risen and for which no solution has yet been found, and greater leniency in the regulation for granting dollar loans.
Las encuestas ponen nerviosos a los inversores. El riesgo país venía moviéndose al compás de la volatilidad internacional, pero en agosto se desacopló del resto de los emergentes y subió hasta los 471 puntos, unos 50 puntos por encima del mínimo alcanzado el 3 de agosto. La canasta de países de alto riesgo comparables, en cambio, comprimió unos 10 puntos en el mismo período, lo que sugiere que la suba tuvo más que ver con factores domésticos, posiblemente con el nerviosismo que generaron las últimas encuestas de opinión. En particular, las de AtlasIntel y UTDT mostraron que la imagen del Gobierno está en mínimos de la gestión. La volatilidad del mercado probablemente irá en aumento a medida que nos acerquemos a 2027.
Banda dentro de la banda. Más allá del evento puntual del martes pasado, cuando estimamos que el Tesoro vendió US$ 145 millones para contener al dólar, la presión cambiaria siguió sin aflojar en los últimos días. El gobierno se mantiene firme en la postura de no dejar que el tipo de cambio supere los AR$ 1,500, ofreciendo cobertura con títulos dollar-linked y plantándose en ese nivel (a confirmar con los datos monetarios de los próximos días). El BCRA bajó el ritmo de compras y acumuló solo US$ 54 millones en los primeros tres días hábiles de agosto. Nuestra visión es que el tipo de cambio va a seguir presionado en los próximos meses, pero el Gobierno buscará administrar la suba para que no haya saltos que pongan nervioso al mercado. Esperamos que se mueva como mínimo al ritmo de la inflación.
The World Cup is over and now the focus is once again on the economy, with an eye on next year’s election. On the political front, the government faces a mixed outlook. On the one hand, the index of confidence in the government published by Universidad Di Tella shows a drop of 6.5% in July, a worrisome figure, though on the other hand, it benefits from a divided opposition without a clear leader that can challenge Milei in the presidential election. The Peronist party is entangled in internal disputes between Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof, while the moderate opposition (including moderate Peronists, radicals, and former PRO) cannot get its act together. True, the elections are a year away and many things can happen along the way, but for the moment the government seems to be leading the opinion polls.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History