Javier Milei’s economic program is going through a critical moment. Inflation has risen over the past 10 months, reaching a peak of 3.4% monthly in March. At the same time, there are clear signs of stagnation—or even contraction—in industrial production, construction, mass consumption, and employment. Wages have been consistently losing ground to inflation, resulting in a steady erosion of purchasing power. The consequence, visible in recent months, is a decline in government approval, with polls showing Milei’s negative image now exceeding 50%.

 After years of rollercoaster mode, the Argentine economy has entered a less dizzying phase. Weekly shocks and abrupt shifts in sentiment have subsided, which is, in itself, good news. Within this framework of greater stability, February and March will likely stand out as the weakest months of the year in terms of activity and inflation.

Strong purchases in the first quarter. In recent days, the Central Bank stepped on the accelerator and closed the first quarter with foreign exchange purchases exceeding USD 4.3 billion, at a pace of nearly USD 1.5 billion per month. With the start of the main harvest season, the Central Bank now has the opportunity to deepen this pace and complete an even stronger second quarter, moving closer to the US$ 10 billion target for the year. Net reserves improved, although they remain in negative territory due to debt payments and the drop in gold prices.

What the Data Says About Economic Activity. The debate over economic activity gained intensity following the publication of the 2025 Q4 GDP and the January EMAE (Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity), which showed that the aggregate economy is growing. In January, even lagging sectors such as industry and construction showed a monthly recovery. However, the trend reveals a more complex story: the most dynamic sectors are agriculture, energy, mining, fishing, and financial intermediation—all of which (except the latter) are more closely tied to exports than to the domestic market.