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Reports
We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
After months of turbulence, the Argentine economy has entered a calmer financial period. Inflation has begun to fall, interest rates have remained at around 20% for a few months after a period of erratic movement, and the EMBI has dropped significantly. The exception has been some recent move in the exchange rate, though this looks like a welcome outcome to avoid further real appreciation of the currency.
There’s no doubt that the wind has shifted in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate rose almost 5% in June, breaking a stability that had lasted more than five months. It’s not a worrying increase, but it clearly shows that the second half of the year will be more challenging on this front. It is also the first real test the Government has faced since the reserve accumulation program began and since monetary policy adopted an expansionary bias.
El dólar sigue subiendo y el BCRA empieza a vender futuros. El tipo de cambio oficial cerró ayer en AR$ 1,479 y acumula una suba de 4.9% en junio. Parte de la presión viene del contexto externo con el dólar que se fortaleció a nivel global y el real cayendo más de 2% en la última semana. El mercado de futuros tuvo su mayor salto de interés abierto desde septiembre (US$ 224 millones en un día), lo que sugiere que el BCRA estuvo vendiendo contratos para contener la presión. En mayo el Central había reducido su posición vendedora a casi cero, así que tiene margen para seguir operando. En el contado, en cambio, las compras cayeron a mínimos desde marzo. Lejos de preocuparnos, la suba del tipo de cambio nos parece positiva. De todos modos, es probable que el BCRA profundice la venta de futuros y dollar linked si la presión continúa.
While all eyes are on the World Cup, there were other important developments last week coming from the United States. On one hand, after three months of war, a preliminary agreement was reached to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Peace still looks fragile and considerable volatility is expected during the 60 days that the negotiations are set to last, but the concrete fact is that oil has already fallen to the USD 80-per-barrel range. This is good news for inflation, although not quite as good for our exports.
Persiguiendo a Ecuador. El riesgo país comprimió unos 70 puntos desde que el miércoles pasado Standard and Poor’s mejoró la calificación de la deuda argentina en dólares de CCC+ a B-. Hace un mes Fitch había hecho lo mismo, y probablemente Moody’s lo haga pronto también. Con dos de las tres big three ubicando a Argentina en B-, se amplía el abanico de fondos que pueden comprar bonos argentinos. Eso impulsó la baja del riesgo país hasta la zona de 430 puntos, achicando la brecha con Ecuador, que está en 390. Esta semana también se conoció que el Banco Mundial aprobó el esquema de garantías para acceder a financiamiento por US$ 2,000 millones. De a poco se va completando el programa financiero, pero seguimos pensando que una colocación internacional abriría un círculo virtuoso que permitiría bajar más el riesgo país y financiarse a mejores tasas. Esperamos que el gobierno se anime más adelante este año.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History