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Reports
We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
Suben las tasas de interés en el mundo. La guerra en medio Oriente tuvo víctimas económicas: más inflación y subas en las tasas de interés. El bono del Tesoro de EEUU a 30 años tocó esta semana 5.18%, un máximo desde 2007, mientras que la de 10 años subió a la zona de 4.60%. El tramo largo de la curva impacta directamente en la tasa de hipotecas y en los bonos de largo plazo. Mala noticia para los países emergentes, dado que el costo de endeudamiento aumenta por lo menos medio punto porcentual. Además, disminuyen las chances de que la Fed, que desde mañana va a ser presidida por Kevin Warsh, baje las tasas de corto plazo este año. Warsh no la tiene fácil. Su primera comunicación será mañana mismo y el mercado espera ver si le imprime un sesgo contractivo en un contexto donde la inflación está presionada por la guerra. Hay que estar alerta, porque si se profundiza el giro hacia tasas más altas habrá impacto en bolsas, monedas y flujos a emergentes.
El dólar toma algo de impulso. Al cierre de ayer el tipo de cambio de referencia quedó en AR$ 1,411.2, subiendo 2.2% en lo que va del mes. Nos parece saludable que el dólar empiece a moverse a un ritmo parecido al de la inflación para evitar que se siga apreciando en términos reales. A pesar de esta leve suba, todavía está un 25% por debajo del techo de la banda, lo que le da espacio para que se mueva durante el segundo semestre, tal como esperamos en nuestro escenario base. La oferta en el mercado se mantiene alta, con el agro liquidando en promedio US$ 138 millones en los últimos 10 días. Tomando como referencia las campañas anteriores el ritmo de liquidación podría ser todavía mayor en esta época del año. Por eso esperamos que el flujo se mantenga, aunque habrá que ver cuánto de la liquidación del agro se queda en pesos. Los préstamos en dólares también siguen creciendo y complementan la oferta.
After a few difficult months, the economy is beginning to show signs of recovery, though this improvement is not yet reflected in the president’s image. The Government Confidence Index from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella fell 1.6% in May, marking six consecutive months of decline. At the same time, data from Universidad de San Andrés shows that presidential approval has dropped from 45% in November 2025 to 37% in May 2026. These are still reasonable numbers for a government that has been implementing an adjustment program for two and a half years. The administration does not feel under pressure so far, as there is no opposition figure capable of capitalizing on its difficulties. Peronism remains fragmented and lacks a clear leader, Macri orbits around but does not appear to have enough votes, and Bullrich distances herself from the ruling party without yet offering a clear alternative. The consensus among political analysts is that if an election were held today, Milei would win.
Country risk is falling again. This is undoubtedly partly thanks to the Central Bank’s purchases in the foreign exchange market, which are strengthening international reserves, partly because the credit rating was raised to B- by Fitch, and positive news is expected soon from Moody’s and eventually S&P. It’s also partly because the government has shown pragmatism in covering its financial needs by issuing dollar-denominated bonds in the local market, taking advantage of the foreign exchange supply.
After several weeks of deteriorating economic indicators, a series of recent news and data give reasons for optimism. The latest economic activity figures show a 3.5% rebound in March, exports broke records with agriculture and energy products soaring, consumer confidence stopped falling and even saw a slight increase, private sector employment showed signs of life after eight months of decline, and the second review of the agreement with the IMF was approved. Furthermore, April’s inflation showed its first slowdown in ten months, and all indications are that it will continue to ease in May. After March closed with 3.4% inflation and February saw a sharp drop in activity, the new data is quite promising.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History