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We offer reports on the Argentine economic and financial situation, focused on key aspects such as the level of activity, fiscal accounts, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
Presentations
We make in-company presentations on the Argentine and international economic situation, adjusting to the client's needs.
Consultations
We are available for specific queries from our clients on current issues via phone or email.
Forecasting
We prepare detailed long-term economic forecasts and alternative scenarios for budgeting and decision making.
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Last Reports
As the year-end toast approaches, the market is beginning to eye the January calendar with some concern. And with good reason: Argentina faces capital and interest maturities in foreign currency totaling around USD 4.2 billion, and the Treasury’s dollar coffers are empty. There is no time to buy dollars in the market, nor has the Government signaled any desire to move in that direction. Therefore, the strategy will focus on securing financing—terrain where “Toto’s” team has shown a very deft hand.
To begin with, La Libertad Avanza increased its representation in both chambers of Congress. In the Lower House it is now the largest bloc, with roughly 90 seats—plus additional support from PRO and other parties aligned with the government. In the Senate its representation also grew, and, most importantly, Peronism will not hold a majority in that chamber for the first time since the return of democracy. These numbers pave the way for the approval of the budget and put the government in a stronger negotiating position to advance labor and tax reforms.
Rates keep falling. Short-term interest rates (repos and caución) have stabilized around 20%, with the Central Bank lowering the floor to 20% in the simultáneas (reverse repo) operations market. This pulled the rest of the curve downward and improves the rate at which the Treasury will be able to roll over its debt in tomorrow’s debt auction. The TAMAR rate is already trading near 33% (down from over 60% before the elections), and overdraft rates have fallen to around 38%. Credit is recovering only modestly in November, but it will likely accelerate in the coming months.
El Tesoro pasó una licitación exigente. Renovó el 96% de los $ 14.6 billones que vencían (contando con sólo $ 5 billones depositados en el BCRA para afrontar pagos). Para apuntalar el resultado, el BCRA había recortado la tasa de simultáneas e incrementado la porción de encajes que pueden integrarse con títulos públicos. Las tasas salieron con un premio lógico respecto del secundario y se logró alargar los plazos, un paso clave para normalizar el mercado de pesos y ordenar el legado post-LEFIS.
The framework agreement on trade and investment with the United States was finally announced. It is not a free trade agreement nor a deep accord endorsed by the Congresses of both countries, but rather a government-to-government understanding aimed at boosting the bilateral relationship and strengthening U.S. influence in Argentina, which Washington views as a strategic geopolitical ally.
Articles
Más rápido de lo que muchos economistas esperaban, el Gobierno va consolidando su objetivo de cerrar el año con déficit fiscal cero, mejora de las cuentas del Banco Central, y camino a la tasa de inflación de un dígito porcentual….
About Us
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University. Professor and researcher at the Di Tella University and academic advisor at FIEL
With vast experience as an advisor to multilateral organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, as well as several Latin American countries, he held prominent roles in the financial sector, including the presidency of Banco Hipotecario S.A. and functions in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic.
He was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland, and taught at institutions such as CEMA, Georgetown University, and Columbia University.
He is a columnist and author of numerous articles in international publications. Author of the book “The Argentine economic crisis, a history of adjustments and imbalances” with Sebastián Kiguel.
Graduate in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK).
He was an economic consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and at Econviews. He also served as an advisor at the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Transport of Argentina.
Alejandro Giacoia
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Pursuing a Master’s Degree in Finance (Di Tella)
Pamela Morales
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UCEMA).
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics UCEMA
Rafael Aguilar
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
He was an assistant in the UBA National Accounts chair
Leila García
Economist
Bachelor of Economics (UBA).
Assistant in the UBA Argentine Economic History