The world turns around but dont cry yet for Argentina
New questions about Argentina”s economic outlook. The international financial crisis opens a host of new questions about Argentina’s economic outlook. The sharp fall in soybean prices and the astronomically high yields on Government bonds imply a more pessimistic scenario with less growth and higher risks for the fiscal and the external accounts. We do not anticipate […]
The fiscal outlook: what and why can change in 2009?
What”s new and important. The economy continues to be affected by the aftermath effects of the farm crisis. There was a rebound in economic activity in July, as demand recovered boosted by the overall improvement of economic and financial conditions and supply increased since the road blockages were lifted, but there were some signs of […]
The economy outside of wonderland
The new economic and political situation. The end of the farm conflict has brought back old concerns about Argentinas macroeconomic outlook. Many investors are worried and the country risk is going through the roof while for the first time in many years local businessmen show signs of being concerned. Investors are worried about the evolution […]
More concerns about growth and inflation
Politics and policies affect growth and the K-Economic Model. Economic and political events have been moving at full speed since the beginning of the farmers’ conflict back in March. There has been a rapid fall in the Government’s positive image that is likely to affect the balance of power in the near future. In this […]
Goodbye Penguinomics: Whats next?
What have the recent events changed? The economy is now entering a new, more difficult phase that is not yet reflected in the recent releases of the official numbers that are already one or two months old. One can perceive a change of sentiment, though, and the figures will almost certainly start to show a […]
Its the Politics, Stupid
What has changed since the strike? It is clear that inflation has now taken center stage in economic discussions and that it is becoming all but impossible for the government to avoid confronting the issue. Inflation is now for the first time the main concern in opinion polls as it now stays above insecurity and […]
Whats new on Debt and in the Farming Sector
A strike that has changed the economic and political climate. The farmers’ strike in response to the increase in the export taxes has dominated the economic and political discussions in recent weeks and has generated the largest political crisis in the Kirchner’s era. While the farmers have lifted the strike and the government has maintained […]
The external sector: still in good shape
The CER controversy continues and the stakes are bigger. A full analysis of the evolution of the Argentine economy in the near future needs to combine economic factors with political elements that have recently become an important ingredient. There are critical economic policy decisions that will be taken in the coming months such as the […]
Commodity Prices keep growth going and reduce vulnerability
High commodities prices mitigate the effects of the International Financial Turbulence. The recent turbulence in the international financial markets has had a relatively small effect so far on the Argentine economy, as the spreads on Argentine bonds and the exchange rate have remained relatively stable, while short term peso interest rates fell from 14% last […]
Mr. & Mrs. K: a new beginning, old recipes
Kristina”s Economy. Cristina receives an economy that is still booming and where the recent tax increases have removed many concerns about the fiscal situation for next year. The rate of unemployment has dropped to one digit and the social indicators have improved significantly. The country has a large stock of international reserves and hence there are […]