Kristina in Wonderland
The economy grows at full speed: how much longer can it last? While the economy continues to grow at full speed, the financial variables are moving in slow motion. Growth is now expected to reach 7% this year and around 4.5% in 2011 and for the moment these strong rates of growth have managed to […]
What can change after the Debt Exchange?
There are mixed feelings about the outcomes of the debt exchange. On the one hand, the final figures indicate that with the completion of the second tranche 92% of the debt that was originally in default has been estructured. This could be considered as a great success. On the other hand, though, the transaction lack […]
Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: are we back to the 90s?
An update on Argentina The last month has provided mixed news for the Argentine economy. On the one hand, the economy continues to grow on the back of high soybean prices and good weather that are leading a new high soybean record crop that is likely to exceed 54 million tons, of a stable exchange […]
Good bye default, hello inflation: version 2.0
The outlook for the debt swap, and inflation Good bye default, hello inflation! That was the title of our newsletter back in April 2005. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the similarities, there are important differences between then and now, as in 2005 the economy was growing at almost 9% […]
The exchange rate dilemmas and the debt exchange opportunities
Recent economic developments. Economic developments have been recently overshadowed by political events, where there has been a fluid situation as the Government and the opposition have been struggling for power. Most of the action has been in Congress where the official party has managed to block the opposition in its efforts to remove Marcó del […]
International reserves: Now you see them. Now you don
In few words. There is never a quiet time in Argentina, and the recent months have reminded us that this is a country where surprises are the norm rather than the exception. The new chapter in the Bicentennial Fund, in which the President inaugurated the Congressional sessions announcing a new emergency decree when Congress was […]
The Redrado saga is over, but the inflation and the fiscal sagas just begin
Reflections on the new political scene. It seems that the worst of this institutional crisis is behind us, as Redrado is now out, there is a new president of the Central Bank that will stay in his position till September and there are negotiations with the opposition to set-up a new, smaller and more bounded […]
The Challenges on Debt Management and Monetary Policy
The market likes the new Fund, but where is the catch? Once again the Argentine government took the market by surprise, as it decided to put aside 6.6 billion dollars of international reserves to make the payment of the debt services for 2010. This time, however, the news initially had some positive effect on bond […]
Macro-financial outlook: too good to be true?
The debt swap is moving, the IMF still on hold. The Argentine financial markets continued to rally in the last month as the Government has made progress and sent positive signals on the external front. The most important piece of news was that the Government finally announced the reopening of the debt exchange for the […]
Myths and realities underlying the recent financial rally
The Argentine financial markets in September continued to rally. The Argentine financial markets in September continued to rally and maintained the momentum that started in mid-August. This improvement to a large extent took place on the back of a much better external environment, where the compression in credit spreads and the recovery in asset prices […]