Good bye abundance, hello budget constraints
The world is becoming a more difficult place to live. Commodity prices have been falling and the outlook does not look bright, the Brazilian real has depreciated and most analysts now expect that it will remain weak, there has been a return to risk aversion and credit spreads and CDSs are up for most countries. […]
Argentina towards a soft or a hard landing?
The headlines are now dominated by political news. The most significant event was Macris victory over Filmus, Cristinas candidate, by a nearly 20 percentage point margin in the first round of the Buenos Aires city election. Despite the importance of this result and the fact that it will be extremely difficult to revert in the […]
What are investors asking about Argentina?
Reflections following a trip to visit investors During a recent trip to visit investors in New York and Boston we received a number of questions about the current situation and the outlook for the Argentine economy.
Are you concerned about Argentina? Three scenarios for the near future
The economy on the road to october and afterwards As it has recently become more likely that Cristina will run and that she could be the winner in the October Presidential elections, more and more questions arise about the prospects for economic developments on the road to October and especially about what might happen next […]
The economy started 2011 on a high note
Thanks to the tail winds, to good luck or to the expansionary macroeconomic policies that so far have had limited side effects, the bottom line is that the economy had a strong beginning in 2011. Consumption continues to grow at good rates and consumer confidence is getting back to high levels of 2007, industrial production […]
A Final Balance of 2010 and the Outlook for 2011
This is a special year for Argentina, as economic and financial variables are likely to evolve to the tune of political developments, especially as we move closer to the October presidential elections, while there will be new challenges regarding the dynamics of inflation, the exchange and interest rates. The Argentine economy is bound to enjoy […]
Economic policy outlook for 2011: better business climate but no efforts to reduce inflation
From Penguinomics to Cristinomics: what can change? Economic policies while Nestor Kirchner was alive followed some logic, especially on the fiscal and external fronts, and after many years they had started to be to some extent predictable. Nestor paid attention to the evolution of Government revenues and of international reserves almost on a daily basis, […]
Cristina without Nestor: more questions than answers
Can Cristina win the next Presidential election? Nestors death has drastically changed the political scenario and has raised many questions about the way in which Cristina is likely to manage the economy. On the political side, what stands out is that the opposition is now confused and has lost the initiative. Most of its arguments […]
The economic challenges in the new political environment
The sudden death of Nestor Kirchner could be seen as black swan (a low probability event with large effects) creates a new scenario for next year presidential elections and opens difficult questions about whether and how Cristinas government will tackle the main economic issues during the next twelve months. The market’s initial reaction was positive, […]
A much better year than expected: What about 2011?
In many ways 2010 has been a much better year than had been predicted. Economic growth has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations; the fiscal accounts have improved relative to 2009 and we now anticipate that the Central Government could show a balance budget for the year as a whole, the country has maintained financial […]