Argentina can avoid a crash, but will do it?
There are three issues that dominate the current economic debate and that will be crucial to determine whether the current administration can have a smooth political transition on the way to 2015: international reserves, the exchange rate and inflation. The government is sending strong indications that it is ready and willing to do whatever it […]
The exchange rate dilemma: torn between inflation and reserves
Two issues have dominated recent economic developments: inflation which in recent months has been rising exceeding 5% in January, and the drop in international reserves, that fell more than 13 billion dollars in 2013 to reach 30.5 billion dollars, and fell again in January around 2.5 billion dollars. The exchange rate has become hostage of […]
Argentinas Economy: an unpleasant journey to 2015
In many ways 2013 will be remembered as the year that the government would like to forget. Cristina suffered a major loss in the mid-term elections, which put an end to any remaining hope to run in the 2015 Presidential elections. Two weather related events uncovered the depth of the energy crisis and of the […]
Santa Claus does not bring good news: inflation going up and reserves coming down
In the last few days the country was shocked by a series of police rebellions and mutinies in various provinces that were requesting improvements in their salaries and working conditions. The problems started late last week in Cordoba, and the lack of security in the streets led to looting in supermarkets and appliance stores. Neither […]
The agricultural sector: from high growth to stagnation
The agricultural and livestock sector generates around 50% of total exports and is one of the most dynamic and competitive sectors of the economy. The sector experienced a significant jump in productivity and output in the last decades. However, in recent years it has remained relatively stagnated, as several factors have been hampering new improvements. […]
What can go wrong next year?
Cristinas health problems burst in the middle of the campaign, though most analysts believe that it will not have a significant impact on the October 27th mid-term elections results. In contrast to Nestors sudden death that made a difference in the opinion polls, as people empathized with Cristina, her illness is taking place at a […]
Reserves on a slippery road: are they enough to pay Boden 15?
Its been a month since the government lost the primaries and all the evidence indicates that the FPV will obtain similar or worse results in the October general elections. In fact, Massa is likely to widen its margin over the official candidate Insaurralde to around ten percentage points. Cristina is already a lame duck president, […]
Bond prices rally before the Primaries
Next Sundays primaries could mark a turning point in the Argentine political equation. The government faces a tough challenge in the Province of Buenos Aires in the Congressional elections from their former chief of Cabinet Sergio Massa, who at the moment seems to hold a margin of three to five percentage points in what looks […]
The economy: one eye on reserves and the other on the opinion polls
After months of suspense Sergio Massa, the major of Tigre, finally decided to run for Congressman in the Province of Buenos Aires. He is a Peronist, he worked for Cristina as chief of cabinet in 2008 and 2009, he appeared in wikileaks characterizing Nestor Kirchner as stubborn and even called him a monster, and is […]
Economic policies before and after the elections: What can we expect?
The Government is facing a difficult political situation on the way to the October mid-term elections, as the recent polls indicate that its positive image continues to fall while the economy is unlikely to help to improve its political standing. Growth is still very low, inflation does not show any signs of receding while the […]