Macris macro: what is next?
It finally happened: Macri is now president, though the difference in the final count of the election was of only 2.8 percentage points over Scioli; much tighter than had been predicted by the opinion polls. Does this small difference hamper Macris ability to govern? A landslide victory would have certainly been better for him, though […]
Electoral surprise. Whats next?
The first round of the Presidential elections has suddenly changed the political outlook, as Macri is now the front runner, and his party Cambiemos has a good chance of winning in the second round. All the opinion polls, for whatever value they might have, are showing that Macri is now leading by at least 6 […]
The outlook for the real estate sector after the elections
The elections are now around the corner and the opinion polls indicate that the situation has not changed substantially relative to the results of the primaries (the Paso). Scioli appears to be stable in the upper 30s, which means that he is very close to obtain the 40% of the votes needed to have a […]
A brief history of Argentina’s devaluations and their effects on inflation and growth
Throughout history, Argentina experienced several episodes of devaluation, understood as events where the exchange rate showed a significant discrete jump. Since the fifties, there were ten episodes of devaluation. This means that there was a devaluation, on average, every six years.
The economic views after the primary elections
The results of the primaries (PASO) suggest that Scioli has strengthened its position as the front runner for the presidential election, though the race remains open while several issues could have an impact on the October results. First, a quick look at the facts.
The politics take center stage: Whats in a Vice President?
The big news was the announcement of the vice-presidential candidates in both tickets. While everybody knew that Cristina was going to appoint the one in Sciolis ticket, and that the chosen would be someone who is ideologically close to her, everybody was surprised when it became known it was Carlos Zannini. He has been part […]
Three scenarios for the next two years
We are reaching crucial times on the political front, as on June 20th we will finally know the presidential candidates and their running mates. The suspense is coming to an end. It seems pretty clear that the two leading candidates continue to be Scioli and Macri, while Massa continuous to lose steam and has basically […]
Time to look at the opinions polls with an eye on the medium term outlook
The election season is now under full swing. Macri scored victories in the city de of Buenos Aires and in Mendoza, while Scioli is consolidating its leading position within the official Peronist party (FPV) that won in Rio Negro and in Salta. At the moment, it looks that the election is heading towards a two […]
How to get rid of the cepo
The economy once again provided some positive surprises as the exchange rates remained stable, inflation slowed down, and there was a big rally in the price of Argentine bonds and stocks. All these took place in spite of the lack of economic growth and the difficulties to avoid further drops in international reserves.
Dollars and pesos: how to finance the 2015 fiscal gap
Will in the end be a presidential race between Macri and Scioli? The most recent polls are indicating that this is likely to be the case, as Scioli is strengthening its stance in the official camp, the FPV, while Macri is gaining ground.