Medium term economic scenarios after the elections
The results of last Sundays primaries were music to the ears for Cambiemos, as Macri´s coalition won comfortably in three of the main districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Mendoza) and probably lost by a very small margin in the other two (in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe). In addition, […]
The exchange rate: Damn if it depreciates, damn if it doesn’t
The mystery was finally unveiled; Cristina is running for Senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This makes the race particularly important, and it will definitely catch the attention of most observers with an eye on the 2019 presidential election. If Cristina comes first, there will be questions about a potential come back that could […]
Some mildly positive news in the economic front … at last!
There is big excitement in the countdown to June 24th, which is the deadline to present the nominees for the mid-term elections. The biggest question was whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be running for a seat in the Senate of the province of Buenos Aires. If she does it will be the battle between […]
How to milk a Dead Cow
The Macri administration got an unexpected political boost in April and it now seems that its positive image returned to almost 50%, the levels where they were late last year prior to the unforced errors that the administration made in February and the social conflicts and the confrontation with the unions that it faced in […]
The cursed trilogy: Inflation, exchange rate & interest rate
The government in recent weeks partly recovered politically from the big difficulties it suffered in February, when Macris positive image dropped 10 percentage points and the government looked disoriented and made numerous mistakes. Throughout the last month and a half the government appeared to be on the defensive and disoriented due to the long teachers […]
The economy with an eye on the midterm elections
Politics got rough in February for the government, and Macris positive image dropped roughly 10 percentage points. This outcome was the result of several unforced errors that included an ill-conceived agreement with Macris family regarding the nationalization of the Post-Office, the unfortunate announcement of a change in the formula that would slightly reduce pensions, and […]
What you need to know about the fiscal accounts And more
There have been several good pieces of news in the economic front. Inflation has remained subdued, the Government already raised most of the funds that it needs in the international financial markets, while the number of green shoots is rising and the prospects for growth are improving. Last, but not least, the international environment has […]
What the mid-term elections, Trump, Brazil and China have in store for Argentina
December was a difficult month for the Macri administration on the political front due to a number of setbacks that it suffered in Congress. At this stage, the overall climate has improved as the summer recess is giving the government some breathing room to regroup and to eventually regain the upper hand that it enjoyed […]
Hello 2017! Outlook, challenges and risks
The government ends its first year with mixed feelings. Though most of the year in the political front it managed to maintain the upper hand and passed over 75 laws in Congress, the last weeks have been tough. The government suffered a setback when the opposition blocked the new electoral law that proposed electronic voting, […]
How to jump start growth and international trade
In recent years it is clear that the economy has become more isolated from the world, as there was a clear trend in which the volume of exports and imports continuously fell. Brazil, our main trading partner through Mercosur also underperformed relative to the evolution of world and regional external trade. The recent political changes […]