The First 100 Days: Test Passed With Merit
The first 100 days of Milei’s government have already passed. An experiment for the Argentine political system. As has already been demonstrated in this short time, politics is precisely the weakest link in Milei’s management. The main figures in the government have no experience in the public sector and the establishment also has to get […]
The “May Pact”, an Opportunity Worth Seizing
The opening of ordinary sessions of Congress left a lot of content to analyze. There were insults towards politicians. The middle class in general supported the speech and there was a conciliatory ending. Relief for the provinces and the May Pact. Beyond the president’s particular style, in the end we all know that seeking consensus […]
The Costs of Fiscal Consolidation Must Be Shared
The national government is embarked on the mission of improving national accounts by 5 points of GDP. We are not so optimistic, but we believe that it is very likely that at least a primary balance will be achieved, which would be very commendable to achieve in a recessive year. Furthermore, we believe that if […]
Asssessment of the Program: So Far So Good
This week Gita Gopinath, number 2 at the IMF, visited Buenos Aires. She came with part of her team and met with President Milei and several figures from the private sector. She was complimentary of the program and outlined some challenges the economic team will face in the coming weeks or months. We took advantage […]
To V or Not to v. What Will the Recovery of Activity Be Like?
Argentina is going through the worst moment of the recession. This was to be expected given the necessary rearrangement of relative prices that, although underway, has not yet ended. The president warned about it when he took office, talking about “stagflation.” The vast majority of consultants also estimated a drop in activity in the first […]
The Economic Aftermath of the Failed Reforms Bill
The fall of the Milei’s comprehensive reforms bill in Congress is a tough political blow. His take-no-prisoners reaction ensured that politics will remain hot for the rest of the summer. The question is how does this affect the economy? The recession and inflation we have these days has no relation to the political issue. The […]
En el fondo somos amigos. Muchos consejos, pero no hay plata.
Como era de esperar el Directorio del Fondo aprobó la revisión del programa de Argentina, aunque dejó en claro que Massa incumplió todas las metas. El FMI aplaude el esfuerzo fiscal que promete el gobierno, entendiendo que es el ancla del programa. También queda claro que gran parte de la reducción del déficit está basada […]
Una buena semana para el gobierno
Y sigue sigue la marcha de la Ley ómnibus y del Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia. Ya se consiguió dictamen de comisión con lo cual la semana que viene va al recinto de diputados donde se espera que la Ley quede aprobada en general. Quedará la discusión sobre algunos artículos donde el gobierno no tiene […]
Una semana movida: Una de cal y otra de arena
Termina una semana con buenas noticias en el frente parlamentario y nuevas preocupaciones en el frente cambiario. La ley ómnibus, aunque con varias modificaciones, sigue avanzando en el Congreso. Lo importante es que el gobierno va a conseguir gran parte de lo que buscaba en lo fiscal que es hoy lo más importante de la […]
Una semana positiva para la macro
Los planes de estabilización son animales complejos. En cada decisión hay muchos caminos probables con resultados que no son tautológicos. Lo que sí sabemos en que estos procesos no son lineales. Hay momentos en donde las cosas salen y otras no salen. Esta semana termina con sabor positivo. Hay 3 hitos (que no son independientes […]