Surprises and Highlights of Milei’s Speech at the BCRA
BCRA’s Monetary and Banking Conferences were held last week, and after listening to officials, economists and even Milei himself, there was a feeling in the air that there is no hurry to eliminate the FX restrictions, although some regulations may be relaxed to favor imports.
The Government, Leading the Championship Against Inertia
The government scored a good victory against a difficult opponent, inflationary inertia, but the championship is long and the champion is not yet defined. The national CPI showed an increase of 3.47% in September and was in line with our estimates and those of the market. It was the lowest inflation since November 2021. The […]
From Dogmatism to Pragmatism
On Monday, Milei surprised by showing his first signs of understanding realpolitik. In his interview with Susana Giménez, the president changed his speech about China: “I was very pleasantly surprised. It is a very interesting trade partner because they do not demand anything, they only ask not to be disturbed”. He also confirmed that he […]
The Social Situation, Another Urgent Stabilization
The poverty and indigence numbers are shameful, but they were not surprising. Months ago it was estimated that poverty in the first semester would be close to 50% and it was 52.9%. Indigence reached 18.1%, indicating that 34% of the poor also have problems to feed themselves, which is what extreme poverty or indigence is […]
Fiscal Surplus Kills the Concept of “The State Saves You”
With eight consecutive months of primary surplus, in seven of which there was a financial surplus, there are no longer any elements left to doubt Javier Milei’s government’s commitment to fiscal balance. By the end of the year, Milei will have cut around 4 points of GDP. In the first 8 months, the accumulated primary […]
Some Items Are Finding Their Place in the Shelves
President Javier Milei had good and bad news in Congress last week. He got the coalition to sustain the veto on the pension formula but lost on the issue of the intelligence funds decree and the education funds. To some extent, it can be said that the week shed more light than shadows. Having achieved […]
Confidence Improves in a Troubled World
The economic team must be euphoric. The exchange rate spread is at 32% and it reached its lowest value since May, having exceeded 50% at many points last July. It can be interpreted as a symbol of confidence, with bonds and stocks holding up quite well in a bad week for international markets. There may […]
Good Vibes in the Last Days of August
In recent days, the vibes in the Argentine market seems to have changed. Let’s hope it stays this way. The Central Bank ended August with net purchases in the exchange market and bonds and stocks rallied. Country risk dropped 74 points against the end of July, but 206 points against its peak in August that […]
Economics vs. Politics
There are several economic issues that now depend directly on political criteria, alliances in Congress, vendettas and more. The most obvious case was the approval in the Senate, by an overwhelming majority, of the change in the pension payment formula. This, if applied, implies a fiscal cost of 0.2% this year and 0.9% of GDP […]
Public Debt Rises: Does Size (In Dollars) Matter?
The July data showed that public debt reached USD 452 billion, almost 10 billion more than in June. So far this year, the debt has grown by USD 82 billion. Several accounting and exchange rate issues justify the increase. For us, there is no significant change in the capacity to service that debt, which is […]