Base scenario-March 2025
The future of exchange rate policy took center stage in the local economic discussion. Progress in negotiations for a new agreement with the IMF, combined with communication missteps by the economic team, raised doubts about the continuation of the crawling peg. This led to the longest reserves selling streak by the Central Bank during Milei’s […]
Base scenario January 2025
The government wants to get through the elections without any exchange rate problems and also seeks to continue lowering inflation. Under this premise, we expect the exchange rate unification to take place by November. This would not be a disruptive event since the FX spread, although it grows with respect to current values, does not […]
Base scenario december 2024
The government wants to get through the elections without any problems generated by the exchange rate and seeks to continue lowering inflation. Under this premise, we expect the exchange rate unification to take place only in November next year. This would not be a disruptive event since the FX spread, although it grows with respect […]
Base scenario october 2024
The government continues to give no signals as to when it will lift the FX restrictions. At Econviews we work with two possible scenarios for the exchange rate unification. If the government prioritizes growth and the normalization of the economy, unification will occur in early next year. This is our base scenario and we assign […]
Base scenario september 2024
The government continues to give no signals as to when it will lift the FX restrictions. At Econviews we work with two possible scenarios for the exchange rate unification. If the government prioritizes growth and the normalization of the economy, unification will occur in December or early next year. This is our base scenario and […]
Base scenario August 2024
The government has already solved two of the three conditions it set to lift the FX restrictions. We are referring to the elimination of the BCRA’s reverse repos and puts. The only pending condition is for inflation and the devaluation rate to converge to close to 0% per month. We do not see that as […]
BASE SCENARIO JULY 2024
The government has already solved two of the three conditions it set to lift the FX restrictions. We are referring to the elimination of the BCRA’s reverse repos and puts. All that remains to be done is for inflation and the devaluation rate to converge to close to 0% per month. We do not see […]
BASE SCENARIO JUNE 2024
It gives the impression that the government does not plan to remove the exchange restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a shock stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We think that exchange rate unification can occur in December. We estimate that the crawling peg […]
Base Scenario May 2024
The government does not plan to remove exchange restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We think that exchange rate unification can occur in December. For the next few months we estimate that the crawling peg will continue […]
Base Scenario April 2024
It seems that the government has no plans to remove FX restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a shock stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We changed the exchange rate unification that we had projected in July to December. For the next few months, […]