Base scenario october 2025
The midterm elections reshaped the outlook for both the government and the markets. The result can be seen as a strong rejection of Kirchnerism and, at the same time, as a mandate to govern. In Congress, the administration now has the opportunity to move from defense to offense. The resounding national victory leaves it in […]
Base scenario september 2025
The elections in the Province of Buenos Aires were a serious setback for the government. On top of that, internal political tensions and economic uncertainty surged last week. We assume that the outcome of the national elections will be more balanced and that the market will perceive it as neither particularly positive nor negative.
Base scenario- august 2025
• The elections in the province of Buenos Aires dealt a severe blow to the government. Assets suffered sharp declines, and the exchange rate rose again. Although Kirchnerism is traditionally strong in Buenos Aires, the large margin of victory suggests growing dissatisfaction with the current political direction. It can also be interpreted as a sign […]
Base scenario-july 2025
The IMF program and the new exchange rate band scheme have been in place for almost three months without any major surprises, although there has been greater volatility in the exchange rate and interest rates. The BCRA began to intervene in the futures market and the Treasury is now making purchases in the spot market. […]
Base scenario – june 2025
The IMF program and the new exchange rate band system have been in place for nearly three months without any major disruptions. Maintaining some foreign exchange restrictions on companies has helped, while the Central Bank has also begun intervening in the futures market.
Base scenario – may 2025
The program with the IMF and the new exchange rate band scheme have been in place for almost two months without any major disruptions. Maintaining certain restrictions on companies has helped, while the Central Bank (BCRA) has begun intervening in the futures market.
Base scenario-March 2025
The future of exchange rate policy took center stage in the local economic discussion. Progress in negotiations for a new agreement with the IMF, combined with communication missteps by the economic team, raised doubts about the continuation of the crawling peg. This led to the longest reserves selling streak by the Central Bank during Milei’s […]
Base scenario January 2025
The government wants to get through the elections without any exchange rate problems and also seeks to continue lowering inflation. Under this premise, we expect the exchange rate unification to take place by November. This would not be a disruptive event since the FX spread, although it grows with respect to current values, does not […]
Base scenario december 2024
The government wants to get through the elections without any problems generated by the exchange rate and seeks to continue lowering inflation. Under this premise, we expect the exchange rate unification to take place only in November next year. This would not be a disruptive event since the FX spread, although it grows with respect […]
Base scenario october 2024
The government continues to give no signals as to when it will lift the FX restrictions. At Econviews we work with two possible scenarios for the exchange rate unification. If the government prioritizes growth and the normalization of the economy, unification will occur in early next year. This is our base scenario and we assign […]