For a long time, our baseline scenario has been that Argentina reaches an agreement with the International Monetary Fund around March or April.
The change of guard in the United States is unlikely to change significantly foreign policy towards Argentina. We do not expect softening policies in the IMF as a result.
The primaries will take place on August 13th, and the big news is that Cristina Kirchner will run for senator in the province of Buenos Aires.
The new administration is moving very quickly to establish a new policy regime that addresses the main obstacles that have been affecting investing and growth.
On Q3 the GDP rebounded 12.8% q/q s.a. after the record contraction in Q2 of 16.0% q/q (and -19.0% y/y), leading to a reduction of the y/y fall to 10.2%.
El PBI global cae alrededor de 5% en 2020, con las economías emergentes contrayéndose un 3%.