The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook
The primary elections came with many surprises. The big winner was Javier Milei, who was in the radar and was thought to be competitive, though nobody expected that he would end in first place and obtain 30% of the votes. Rodriguez Larreta was the big loser, as he lost badly the primary to Patricia Bullrich, […]
Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is Still the Name of the Game
The economic discussions have been dominated by the day-to-day developments in the negotiations between Argentina and the IMF. The other key piece of analysis is on the impact that the primaries (the PASO) might have on key variables such as the parallel exchange rate, inflation, the country risk and on overall financial stability. The latest […]
What has changed with the announcement of the presidential candidates?
We now know the candidates that will compete in the primaries (the paso) in August, the first big step in the electoral race. The Peronists, after some internal discussions and an indication that the kirchnerist Wado de Pedro would lead the ticket, have changed their mind, and decided to go with Finance Minister Sergio Massa. […]
The Lack of International Reserves is Reaching a Critical Point
The macroeconomic problems remain the same. Policy dilemmas have not changed, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating, and the outcomes remain uncertain. The governments unwillingness to tackle the critical policy problems, perhaps hoping that the bleeding of reserves would miraculously come to an end or that inflation would somehow fall into place have put the […]
New Challenges on the Exchange Rate and Inflation Fronts
The macroeconomic situation is deteriorating rapidly in Argentina. There is little chance to imagine that it can improve on the way to the elections. The pressing problem is the lack of reserves, which is a direct consequence of a grossly overvalued currency and the inability to control the spread between the official and the parallel […]
Washington we have some problems
Events are taking place at high speed. The severe drought, probably the worst in six decades, is creating new challenges for economic policies. Exports are likely to drop by over USD 20 billion and it remains unclear how the Central Bank will manage a drastic shortage of dollars. But the story does not end there. […]
Politics and economics: the two-way highway
Is it the economy? Is it politics? The chicken or the egg? This is the question today in Argentina, where there is a debate regarding which is the biggest obstacle to turn around an economy that has been stagnating for more than a decade. Obviously, a switch towards better economic policies is necessary, but the […]
Similarities and differences between 2015 and 2023
If we could go back in time and try to find a year that looks like 2023 the answer is pretty obvious: 2015. It was the last year of the Kirchner administration, which was struggling to get to the presidential elections in one piece. It was fighting a man-to-man battle to defend reserves and avoid […]
2022: Another year in the roller coaster
A year full of volatility and uncertainty is coming to an end, and everything suggests that next year will not be very different. But many things happened throughout the year, some better than expected and others worse. There were some worrisome months, but the worst-case scenarios that some analysts predicted (such as hyperinflation or a […]
The costs and perils of policies to muddle through
The economy continues to be in slow motion mode, as there is a gradual deterioration in economic activity, inflation remains relatively stable in the 6.3% range, international reserves dropped but have not collapsed while the parallel exchange rates remain relatively stable. While there are still concerns about one of the typical Argentine crises that leads […]