What does Cristinas victory mean for the economy and for policies?
Cristina won, as most political analysts had predicted, and she got a strong mandate as she obtained 45% of the popular vote. She has now a commanding majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, while a majority of the provincial Governors respond to the Government. Despite this strong electoral performance it does […]
Penguinomics Part II. What you need to know about the economic outlook for 2008
Recent economic developments. Inflation and the stories surrounding the publication of the indices, and the recent increases in domestic interest rates are the top issues in the economic agenda these days. The international financial turbulence, which affected the subprime credit market, had a large effect on the price of long term bonds, especially on the […]
Energy and Inflation: Possible and Impossible Solutions
And the economy keeps rolling. The economy continues to benefit from the very high commodity prices for agricultural products while the overall level of activity is still being pushed by expansionary macroeconomic policies. Nevertheless, at this time the economy is showing increasing signs of being overheated and as a result it is facing more and […]
Economics and Politics at a Turning Point
Energy and public transportation become a big issue. In the last few weeks there has been a clear turning point in the political and social atmosphere in Argentina that could have an important effect on economic policies after the October elections. The government suddenly found itself on the defensive as a result of a sequence […]
Three Scenarios for Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate
Consumption keeps the economy going. Consumption spending is becoming more and more critical to sustain the current growth span. The economy has been benefiting from an important consumption boom that is reflected in the large increase in the sales of automobiles (around 20% YoY) and the high rates of growth in supermarkets and in shopping center […]
Macroeconomic Performance in the Election Year
Growth: Consumption keeps the momentum and the main strength is now in the service sector. The most recent indicators of economic activity are still mixed, but some key variables start to hint that the economy is slowing down in some sectors, though it is still very gradual. In real estate there has been a clear […]
The New Inflation Magic
Inflation is becoming a bigger headache. The economic events this month have been dominated by the doubts generated about the accuracy of the January CPI. Its level has an important effect on the prices of the bonds that are adjusted based on the CER (namely the CPI, at least so far) and is expected to […]
Informe Mensual Resumen
Una lectura de los indicadores recientes. La actividad económica mantiene su fortaleza y el crecimiento económico del 2006 estará en torno al 8.5%. Luego de cuatro años de crecimiento elevado, la economía enfrenta cada vez más “cuellos de botella”, se hace cada vez más difícil contratar mano de obra calificada y el trade-off entre inflación […]
Can anything change in 2007?
The Argentine economy concludes its fourth year of very strong growth that has allowed GDP per capita to finally get back to the previous peak level of 1998. Investment is still increasing and it now represents 22% of GDP, the rate of unemployment continues to decline and the economy still enjoys the twin surpluses that […]
The Myths and Realities of Investment
The long run is approaching. While growth continues to exceed expectations (8.6% in August, which was one percentage point higher than the consensus), there are more and more signals indicating that we are getting closer to the end of the smooth sailing period. The economy is reaching the point where many of the problems that were […]