A second stage for economic policy, from the “chainsaw” to the “scalpel”
From the very beginning the program had two distinct phases. In the first one the main objective was to restore the basis of macroeconomic balance for which the government used a cold turkey approach, a broad- brush adjustment on the fiscal side and policies that signaled a strong commitment to fiscal balance and a return […]
Cautiously optimistic, with a few wrinkles to iron
The government is approaching critical times as Congress is starting to debate the “Ley de Bases”. The bill includes a fiscal package as well as some structural reforms that should help to improve productivity and increase investment and growth. This is a tone down version from the law that was sent to Congress in February […]
10 questions for 100 days of Milei
1) How would the economy look at the end of 2024 to be considered a success? A successful adjustment would mean most of the following features. Firstly, the inflation rate has to be comfortably in one digit. We think that unless there is a conventional stabilization plan (i.e. a regime change) inflation will hover around […]
So far so good, but many challenges ahead
Javier Milei has had a good beginning on the economic front. Investors like what they see, the IMF supports his policies, and the US has been sending top government officials to visit Buenos Aires, a gesture that is welcome by the government. Despite the tough policy measures that have been implemented Milei´s popular support remains […]
Strengths and weaknesses of Milei’s plan
The Milei administration has generated high hopes in the market, mainly because of its decision to eliminate the fiscal deficit and undertake structural reforms. In addition to those objectives, it stated clearly that he wants to unify the foreign exchange market this year, eliminate the FX spread, and replenish international reserves.
Strengths and weaknesses of Mileis plan
The Milei administration has generated high hopes in the market, mainly because of its decision to eliminate the fiscal deficit and undertake structural reforms. In addition to those objectives, it stated clearly that he wants to unify the foreign exchange market this year, eliminate the FX spread, and replenish international reserves.
Milei: fast and not so furious
Milei has started his presidential mandate with policy measures that generate some hope. True, he confronts huge challenges, as he received an economy in intensive care with negative international reserves, a grossly overvalued currency, rampant inflation, a large fiscal deficit, and no access to international credit. He is taking steps to correct it.
Milei: big hopes, big challenges
Milei has been elected with roughly 56% of the popular vote, which means that he has a strong mandate to go ahead with his plan for stabilization and structural reforms. On the other hand, he has a small representation in Congress, including only seven senators out of a total of 72, and hence he will […]
The dilemmas of the two-man presidential race
Massa was the big winner in the general election and appears to be the front runner in a runoff that is likely to be very tight. The fact that he came in the first position with 37% of the votes was a surprise, as most pollsters were expecting Milei to lead, but he ended in […]
2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible
The economic situation continues to deteriorate, and it is now clear that whoever wins the general elections will have a colossal challenge in December. He or she will have to deal with an extremely fragile situation including a high and probably rising rate of inflation, the need to devalue to reduce the FX spread, reduce […]