Bond prices rally before the Primaries
Next Sundays primaries could mark a turning point in the Argentine political equation. The government faces a tough challenge in the Province of Buenos Aires in the Congressional elections from their former chief of Cabinet Sergio Massa, who at the moment seems to hold a margin of three to five percentage points in what looks […]
The economy: one eye on reserves and the other on the opinion polls
After months of suspense Sergio Massa, the major of Tigre, finally decided to run for Congressman in the Province of Buenos Aires. He is a Peronist, he worked for Cristina as chief of cabinet in 2008 and 2009, he appeared in wikileaks characterizing Nestor Kirchner as stubborn and even called him a monster, and is […]
Economic policies before and after the elections: What can we expect?
The Government is facing a difficult political situation on the way to the October mid-term elections, as the recent polls indicate that its positive image continues to fall while the economy is unlikely to help to improve its political standing. Growth is still very low, inflation does not show any signs of receding while the […]
Argentinas new macroeconomic outlook: too many clouds in the horizon
In the last few weeks the political and economic climate has been heating up on the way to the October mid-term elections, and the government is facing the most difficult political juncture since 2009. The political situation has been dominated by three events. First, there was a large flood in the city of La Plata […]
The economy at a crossroads: is there a way out?
The Argentine economy is showing signs of fatigue and deterioration and there is little hope at the moment that the outlook could improve in the near future. Between 2003 and 2011 Argentina enjoyed an overall good performance characterized by high growth, external balance and a reasonable fiscal situation with relatively small side effects on inflation, […]
The exchange rate blues
The year has started with financial issues taking center stage, as concerns about the evolution of the exchange rate, inflation and credit spreads have taken center stage in the economic debate. The rapid and large depreciation of the parallel exchange rate has been the dominating financial issue (see section 2). The spread between the official […]
The exchange rate blues
The year has started with financial issues taking center stage, as concerns about the evolution of the exchange rate, inflation and credit spreads have taken center stage in the economic debate. The rapid and large depreciation of the parallel exchange rate has been the dominating financial issue (see section 2). The spread between the official […]
Debt: A story of Vultures, Penguins and Lawyers
The last few weeks Argentina has being undergoing a legal saga typical of one of the best John Grisham thrillers. It had all the ingredients including a grumpy judge, greedy investors, a stubborn government, lots of money at stake and a last minute legal decision that put a country on the brink of a new […]
Chaco and New York: An explosive cocktail
Argentina has done it once more, and the financial markets are desperately looking for answers. Uncertainty is the name of the game. First, the province of Chaco made a payment in pesos of a dollar denominated bond, while just three weeks later a New York Court of Appeals released a decision that represented a setback […]
A better economic outlook in a more complex political environment
There are clear signs that economic activity has reached a floor, that July marked a turning point and that the economy is undergoing an anemic recovery. Most likely growth will remain well below the 3.26% rate which is the trigger for the payment of the GDP warrant next year, but nevertheless we have revised our […]