The unpleasant effects of tight money
October was a month with plenty of news, in both the political and the economic side. Regarding elections, the ruling party not only prevailed in the province of Buenos Aires, but it also won in 13 other provinces and scored the five most populated districts (Province and City of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, and […]
A quick look at Macri´s first two years and what comes next
September brought good news regarding economic recovery: the INDEC published the GDP figures for Q2 of 2017, which reflected the steady progress of economic activity again (0.7% q/q s.a. and 2.7% y/y). Unlike the demands behavior over the last few years of growth, this time investment led the recovery. However, warning lights turned on in […]
Is Argentina facing a turn in the political cycle?
The first half of August was marked by the primary elections, which resulted in a victory of the official party Cambiemos at the national level. In the Province of Buenos Aires, the final scrutiny threw Cristina Kirchner as the winner by a very small margin. However, recent polls indicate that Esteban Bullrich, the official candidate, […]
Medium term economic scenarios after the elections
The results of last Sundays primaries were music to the ears for Cambiemos, as Macri´s coalition won comfortably in three of the main districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Mendoza) and probably lost by a very small margin in the other two (in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe). In addition, […]
The exchange rate: Damn if it depreciates, damn if it doesn’t
The mystery was finally unveiled; Cristina is running for Senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This makes the race particularly important, and it will definitely catch the attention of most observers with an eye on the 2019 presidential election. If Cristina comes first, there will be questions about a potential come back that could […]
Some mildly positive news in the economic front … at last!
There is big excitement in the countdown to June 24th, which is the deadline to present the nominees for the mid-term elections. The biggest question was whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be running for a seat in the Senate of the province of Buenos Aires. If she does it will be the battle between […]
How to milk a Dead Cow
The Macri administration got an unexpected political boost in April and it now seems that its positive image returned to almost 50%, the levels where they were late last year prior to the unforced errors that the administration made in February and the social conflicts and the confrontation with the unions that it faced in […]
The cursed trilogy: Inflation, exchange rate & interest rate
The government in recent weeks partly recovered politically from the big difficulties it suffered in February, when Macris positive image dropped 10 percentage points and the government looked disoriented and made numerous mistakes. Throughout the last month and a half the government appeared to be on the defensive and disoriented due to the long teachers […]
The economy with an eye on the midterm elections
Politics got rough in February for the government, and Macris positive image dropped roughly 10 percentage points. This outcome was the result of several unforced errors that included an ill-conceived agreement with Macris family regarding the nationalization of the Post-Office, the unfortunate announcement of a change in the formula that would slightly reduce pensions, and […]
What you need to know about the fiscal accounts And more
There have been several good pieces of news in the economic front. Inflation has remained subdued, the Government already raised most of the funds that it needs in the international financial markets, while the number of green shoots is rising and the prospects for growth are improving. Last, but not least, the international environment has […]