Base scenario september 2024
The government continues to give no signals as to when it will lift the FX restrictions. At Econviews we work with two possible scenarios for the exchange rate unification. If the government prioritizes growth and the normalization of the economy, unification will occur in December or early next year. This is our base scenario and […]
Base scenario August 2024
The government has already solved two of the three conditions it set to lift the FX restrictions. We are referring to the elimination of the BCRA’s reverse repos and puts. The only pending condition is for inflation and the devaluation rate to converge to close to 0% per month. We do not see that as […]
BASE SCENARIO JULY 2024
The government has already solved two of the three conditions it set to lift the FX restrictions. We are referring to the elimination of the BCRA’s reverse repos and puts. All that remains to be done is for inflation and the devaluation rate to converge to close to 0% per month. We do not see […]
BASE SCENARIO JUNE 2024
It gives the impression that the government does not plan to remove the exchange restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a shock stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We think that exchange rate unification can occur in December. We estimate that the crawling peg […]
Base Scenario May 2024
The government does not plan to remove exchange restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We think that exchange rate unification can occur in December. For the next few months we estimate that the crawling peg will continue […]
Base Scenario April 2024
It seems that the government has no plans to remove FX restrictions in the short term. It also seems less likely that there will be a shock stabilization plan such as the Austral or Convertibility plan. We changed the exchange rate unification that we had projected in July to December. For the next few months, […]
Base Scenario March 2024
One of the key points of the economic program is to achieve fiscal balance this year. We think the government will try, but it will probably not make it. We estimate the year will end with a balanced primary result and a fiscal deficit of 2% of GDP. In any case, a result like this […]
Base scenario february 2024
One of the main axes of the economic program is to achieve fiscal balance this year. We believe that the government will try, but probably will not be able to get there. We already saw complications in Congress when attempts were made to raise taxes. Now the government is going to try to make tax […]
Base scenario january 2024
The program presented by the new authorities focuses on achieving fiscal balance this year. We believe that the government will try, but probably will not be able to get there. It recently canceled the fiscal part of the Omnibus Law, so it will have to reduce expenses even more. We think of a primary surplus […]
ESCENARIO BASE Diciembre 2023
En sus primeros pasos, Milei dejó de lado los dogmas y optó por el pragmatismo. El programa presentado tiene como centro lograr el equilibrio fiscal el año que viene. Creemos que el gobierno dará la batalla, pero probablemente no logre llegar. Pensamos en un superávit primario del 1% y un déficit fiscal también del 1% […]