Three scenarios for the next two years

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Three scenarios for the next two years

Junio 2015

We are reaching crucial times on the political front, as on June 20th we will finally know the presidential candidates and their running mates. The suspense is coming to an end.

It seems pretty clear that the two leading candidates continue to be Scioli and Macri, while Massa continuous to lose steam and has basically no chance of making a comeback. The big question is whether Scioli will choose a more traditional peronist (most likely one of the governors), which would show moderation and would be a positive signal to the markets, or if instead he will be forced to choose somebody who is closer to La Cámpora or who is ideologically close to Kicillof, which the market would not like. On the Macri side there is less concern about the decision, as it seems most likely that he will choose somebody from his inner circle, following the recommendation of his leading political advisor, Durán Barba.