Medium term economic scenarios after the elections

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Medium term economic scenarios after the elections

Agosto 2017

The results of last Sunday’s primaries were music to the ears for Cambiemos, as Macri´s coalition won comfortably in three of the main districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Mendoza) and probably lost by a very small margin in the other two (in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe). In addition, it added important victories in some Peronist strongholds such as San Luis, La Pampa, Entre Rios and Santa Cruz.

At the national level, Cambiemos was the largest minority, as it reached 36% of votes, two percentage points more than it got in the general election in 2015. In addition, if in October the results do not differ from those in the primaries, it should increase the number of deputies to 104 (18 more) out of a total number of 256, and to 26 (9 more) in the Senate out of 72. These figures indicate that while Cambiemos would increase the number of members in both chambers, it will not have a majority in either one and would be forced to continue to negotiate with opposition.