Is Argentina facing a turn in the political cycle?

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Is Argentina facing a turn in the political cycle?

Septiembre 2017

The first half of August was marked by the primary elections, which resulted in a victory of the official party “Cambiemos” at the national level. In the Province of Buenos Aires, the final scrutiny threw Cristina Kirchner as the winner by a very small margin. However, recent polls indicate that Esteban Bullrich, the official candidate, is likely to win in the general elections of October.

On the economic side, once the result of the elections was announced, the market immediately reacted favorably and the exchange rate appreciated from 17.80 to 17.11 ARS/USD, while the country risk reduced slowly from 460 to 384 bps. In early September, the exchange rate appreciated even more to ARS 16.98.