Monthly

Informes Mensuales

Is Argentina facing a turn in the political cycle?

Septiembre 2017
The first half of August was marked by the primary elections, which resulted in a victory of the official party “Cambiemos” at the national level. In the Province of Buenos Aires, the final scrutiny threw Cristina Kirchner as the winner by a very small margin. However, recent polls indicate that Esteban Bullrich, th...

Medium term economic scenarios after the elections

Agosto 2017
The results of last Sunday’s primaries were music to the ears for Cambiemos, as Macri´s coalition won comfortably in three of the main districts (the city of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Mendoza) and probably lost by a very small margin in the other two (in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe). In addition, it a...

The exchange rate: Damn if it depreciates, damn if it doesn't

Julio 2017
The mystery was finally unveiled; Cristina is running for Senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This makes the race particularly important, and it will definitely catch the attention of most observers with an eye on the 2019 presidential election. If Cristina comes first, there will be questions about a potential...

Some mildly positive news in the economic front ... at last!

Junio 2017
There is big excitement in the countdown to June 24th, which is the deadline to present the nominees for the mid-term elections. The biggest question was whether Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be running for a seat in the Senate of the province of Buenos Aires. If she does it will be the battle between the old ...

The cursed trilogy: Inflation, exchange rate & interest rate

Abril 2017
The government in recent weeks partly recovered politically from the big difficulties it suffered in February, when Macri’s positive image dropped 10 percentage points and the government looked disoriented and made numerous mistakes. Throughout the last month and a half the government appeared to be on the defensiv...

The economy with an eye on the midterm elections

Marzo 2017
Politics got rough in February for the government, and Macri’s positive image dropped roughly 10 percentage points. This outcome was the result of several “unforced errors” that included an ill-conceived agreement with Macri’s family regarding the nationalization of the Post-Office, the unfortunate announcement of a...

What you need to know about the fiscal accounts…And more

Febrero 2017
There have been several good pieces of news in the economic front. Inflation has remained subdued, the Government already raised most of the funds that it needs in the international financial markets, while the number of green shoots is rising and the prospects for growth are improving. Last, but not least, the inte...

What the mid-term elections, Trump, Brazil and China have in store for Argentina

Enero 2017
December was a difficult month for the Macri administration on the political front due to a number of setbacks that it suffered in Congress. At this stage, the overall climate has improved as the summer recess is giving the government some breathing room to regroup and to eventually regain the upper hand that it enj...