Monthly

Informes Mensuales

External Tailwind, Intervention, and the IMF: An Impossible Trinity

Enero 2021
What a difference a month can make: The game changer has been the rapid and significant increase in the price of soybean, which now stands at around 506 dollars a ton, roughly 50% higher than a year ago.  This jump in the price has suddenly soothed the concerns about a continuous drop in reserves and about a st...

The Spring Brought Some Oxygen, but a Hot Summer is Ahead

Diciembre 2020
The 2021 midterm elections are starting to affect day to day decisions and can have an impact on the economic develo pments.  The starting point is worrisome for the government because the poverty levels exceed 40% and there are no signs that they are receding, the economic recovery is losing steam and there is...

High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

Noviembre 2020
The change of guard in the United States is unlikely to change significantly foreign policy towards Argentina. We do not expect softening policies in the IMF as a result. There could be some benefit from a weaker dollar and therefore a rise in the price of commodities. Soybeans have surged in the last months and are...

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

Marzo 2020
After two weeks of gradually ramping up social distancing measures, on March 19th President Fernández announced a nationwide mandatory quarantine. Although the quarantine ends on March 31st (coincidentially the set deadline for the debt restructuration) the evidence from Asia and Europe suggests it may be necessary ...