Informes Mensuales

Inflation rose in March, but the economy will still muddle through until the elections

Abril 2021
It is increasingly clear that the government is taking every economic decision with an eye on the election and that the 4.8% March inflation rate was a disruptive figure and a potential threat.  It was totally unexpected, much higher than anyone was projecting. This jeopardized the strategy of avoiding disrupti...

The efforts to avoid adjustment might work until the elections, and then what?

Marzo 2021
The current economic situation raises two important questions. Firstly, can the government continue to muddle through until the October elections as it did in recent months? In other words, can it keep inflation under control, avoid a new acceleration of the parallel exchange rates and maintain the current growth mo...

Recent Economic Developments: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Febrero 2021
The recent news on the economic front has been overall good. The recovery remains on track in line with the normalization of mobility indicators and a gradual reopening of different business that were affected by Covid-19. The parallel exchange rates remain calm, interest rates have stayed relative stable despi...

External Tailwind, Intervention, and the IMF: An Impossible Trinity

Enero 2021
What a difference a month can make: The game changer has been the rapid and significant increase in the price of soybean, which now stands at around 506 dollars a ton, roughly 50% higher than a year ago.  This jump in the price has suddenly soothed the concerns about a continuous drop in reserves and about a st...

The Spring Brought Some Oxygen, but a Hot Summer is Ahead

Diciembre 2020
The 2021 midterm elections are starting to affect day to day decisions and can have an impact on the economic develo pments.  The starting point is worrisome for the government because the poverty levels exceed 40% and there are no signs that they are receding, the economic recovery is losing steam and there is...

High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

Noviembre 2020
The change of guard in the United States is unlikely to change significantly foreign policy towards Argentina. We do not expect softening policies in the IMF as a result. There could be some benefit from a weaker dollar and therefore a rise in the price of commodities. Soybeans have surged in the last months and are...