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Difficult political and economic scenarios condition the IMF agreement

Difficult political and economic scenarios condition the IMF agreement

Octubre 2021
The defeat in the primaries marked a before and after for the government coalition. There were important changes in the cabinet and the tensions within the government became apparent. There are different visions about what to do in the economic front. On one side we have the more radical wing (led by Cristina Kirchn...

The elections, the economy, and the inevitability of the adjustment

The elections, the economy, and the inevitability of the adjustment

Septiembre 2021
The results of the primary elections (PASO) were surprising. Mainly because the government lost by ten percentage points at the national level and in the crucial province of Buenos Aires by almost five percentage points.  If the results end up being similar in the actual mid-term elections on November 14th, it ...

The economy and the elections: playing poker with no aces?

The economy and the elections: playing poker with no aces?

Julio 2021
The electoral calendar is moving ahead, and soon we will know the candidates for the primaries that will take place on September 12th.  These elections are important. They should decide whether the government can get closer to having a majority in the Lower House, a situation that would allow to pass laws in Co...

A Soft Transition to the Elections: The Calm That Precedes the Storm?

A Soft Transition to the Elections: The Calm That Precedes the Storm?

Junio 2021
It seems that the government has enough instruments to maintain key economic variables under control until the elections.  The official exchange rate should be manageable and avoid a steep devaluation, the government should be able to rollover the domestic debt, inflation could remain within predictable bounds ...

In Search of a Program: Hope in Paris, Not So Much in Buenos Aires

In Search of a Program: Hope in Paris, Not So Much in Buenos Aires

Mayo 2021
Who is in command? This is a critical question when it comes to economic policies.  Minister Guzman is formally the Minister of Economy, but he seems to be primarily in charge of managing debt and the relationship with multilateral organizations.  This is a good start, because a potential IMF agreement wil...

Inflation rose in March, but the economy will still muddle through until the elections

Inflation rose in March, but the economy will still muddle through until t...

Abril 2021
It is increasingly clear that the government is taking every economic decision with an eye on the election and that the 4.8% March inflation rate was a disruptive figure and a potential threat.  It was totally unexpected, much higher than anyone was projecting. This jeopardized the strategy of avoiding disrupti...

The efforts to avoid adjustment might work until the elections, and then what?

The efforts to avoid adjustment might work until the elections, and then w...

Marzo 2021
The current economic situation raises two important questions. Firstly, can the government continue to muddle through until the October elections as it did in recent months? In other words, can it keep inflation under control, avoid a new acceleration of the parallel exchange rates and maintain the current growth mo...

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