Argentina's Economic Outlook 4Q 2011

Informes Trimestrales


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Argentina's Economic Outlook 4Q 2011

Cuarto trimestre

The FX regulations have allowed the Central Bank to regain control on the exchange rate and monetary policies. Liquidity increased, international reserves rose, interest rates dropped and capital outflows decelerated.


So far the economy maintains some growth momentum, though the combination of foreign exchange controls, lack of external financing, and the uncertainty that surrounds the current policy environment should take a toll on growth.

We still think that Argentina’s macroeconomic imbalances are within the comfort zone and hence that the most likely outcome is to see a soft landing rather than a hard landing.

The main challenges are at the sector level, where controls on prices, imports and foreign exchange are affecting profitability and production.