Argentina's Economic Outlook 1°Q 2011

Informes Trimestrales


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Argentina's Economic Outlook 1°Q 2011

Primer trimestre

The economy had a strong beginning in 2011. Consumption continues to grow at good rates and consumer confidence is getting back to high levels of 2007, industrial production expanded by 7.6% according to FIEL and 9% to INDEC.

- Monthly inflation in the first quarter has remained below the monthly rates of last year, but it is likely to be at least 25% for the whole year

- The exchange rate has depreciated by 2.6% so far this year in the official market. In the “parallel market” the exchange rate depreciated 4.3% and the spread between these markets is at a record high level (5%). Domestic interest rates remain stable

- The main macro challenges are for 2012, when there is likely to be a current account deficit, more pressures to depreciate the currency as the country could lose reserves, and a need to have some increase in utility rates to avoid a larger fiscal deficit

- Recently become more likely that Cristina will run and that she could be the winner in the October Presidential elections