Argentina´s Economic Outlook 4°Q 2010

Informes Trimestrales


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Argentina´s Economic Outlook 4°Q 2010

Cuarto trimestre

Last year provided many surprises on the macroeconomic front, most of them positive, growth was around 7.5%, much higher than most analysts had expected

- Financial markets remained remarkably stable, as the exchange rate only depreciated by 4.5% measured at year end, while domestic interest rates increased only marginally


- The main unpleasant news last year was the rise in inflation, which increased driven by expansionary macroeconomic policies and higher wage demands



- The Argentine economy is bound to enjoy another good macroeconomic performance in 2011, supported by a very favorable external environment, by expansionary macroeconomic policies and by the fact that it still has margins in the external and the fiscal fronts



- The combination of a high rate of inflation and a small nominal depreciation should lead to another year of significant real appreciation of the currency



- The largest risks to our base scenario are a drastic deterioration in the external environment, or conflicts with the unions that lead to a sharp increase in inflation