LATAM8 Brief

Latam8 Brief Reports

Latam 8 April 7

Latam 8 April 7

07 Abril 2021
In 2020 the GDP fell 9.9% recording one of the highest contractions in history. Both private consumption and investment plummeted 13.1% and 13% respectively. According to January data, the recovery is being led by Manufacturing (+4.6% y/y, Construction (+10.2% y/y), and Commercial activity (2.6%). Another sector wit...

Latam 8 December 23

Latam 8 December 23

23 Diciembre 2020
On Q3 the GDP rebounded 12.8% q/q s.a. after the record contraction in Q2 of 16.0% q/q (and -19.0% y/y), leading to a reduction of the y/y fall to 10.2%. As isolation measures eased, private consumption rebounded 10.2% q/q and investment jumped 42.9% -driven by the construction sector- but will end the year with the...

Latam 8 September 29

Latam 8 September 29

30 Septiembre 2020
Economic activity recovered from the trough of April in May and June and to a lesser extent in July, but it seems to have stopped there. The lack of an exit plan for the lockdowns coupled with severe injuries to government credibility have implied a strong hit on investment. The interior of the country that was almo...

Latam 8 June 19

Latam 8 June 19

22 Junio 2020
The economy seems to have touched bottom in April, but the recovery is not looking like a V-shaped one. Firstly, the lockdown continues in the Buenos Aires area and is likely to do so through July. Secondly, the government is limiting in the second half the size of the stimulus programs. Thirdly, the payment chain f...

Latam 8 December 20

Latam 8 December 20

20 Diciembre 2019
Alberto Fernández assumed the presidency on December 10th with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as his vice-president. The key positions at the Central Bank (Miguel Ángel Pesce), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Felipe Solá) and the Ministry of Economy (Martín Guzmán) carry Alberto’s seal rather than Cristina’s. The f...

Latam 8 September 20

Latam 8 September 20

23 Septiembre 2019
Macri lost the primaries against Alberto Fernández by an unexpected difference of 15 points. The market reaction was very negative, with a significant depreciation of the peso and significant losses across all asset classes. Hernán Lacunza became the new Minister of Finance. General elections will take place on Octo...

Latam 8 June 26

Latam 8 June 26

26 Junio 2019
Macri shocked the political space by choosing Miguel Pichetto as his vice president candidate. He’s a veteran Peronist, a pro market defender and one of the leaders of Alternativa Federal. The decision was celebrated by the market, with a nominal FX appreciation of the Peso to 42.50, and a slump in country risk to 8...

Latam 8 March 19

Latam 8 March 19

26 Marzo 2019
The IMF staff and local authorities reached an agreement on the 3rd review of the program. Still subject to the approval of the Executive Board, Argentina will access to US$10.87 billion in the coming weeks. The image of the Government is 23% lower than a year ago and close to the lowest since Macri took office. Fir...

Latam 8 November 18

Latam 8 November 18

26 Noviembre 2018
The IMF closed a new deal with Argentina, adding USD 6.0 billion to the existing stand-by credit, now totaling USD 56.3 billion. While the government took several months to find a response to the crisis, it now seems to finally managed, with the support of the IMF, to put together a policy package that can succeed i...

Latam 8 September 18

Latam 8 September 18

28 Septiembre 2018
Macri announced negotiations to improve the IMF program, but there were no details and the IMF remained silent. This created confusion in the market followed by rumors of possible changes in cabinet. This weakened Macri´s image, already in lows by the currency crisis, and raised questions about his chances for re-el...

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