What can go wrong next year?

Cristina’s health problems burst in the middle of the campaign, though most analysts believe that it will not have a significant impact on the October 27th mid-term elections results. In contrast to Nestor’s sudden death that made a difference in the opinion polls, as people empathized with Cristina, her illness is taking place at a time when the government is clearly perceived to be on the way out and when there are no strong candidates in the official party (the FVP) that are likely to benefit this time from the empathy.

In addition, the fact that Boudou is taking over as interim President is clearly a handicap for the FPV, as he lacks legitimacy, he does not have ascendancy over the Peronists nor on the members of the Campora, while he is tainted by corruption allegations.  All in all, he is likely to be a weak and questioned President, who will have a difficult time making and enforcing decisions.