Weekly

Weekly Reports

The fiscal accounts after many years of excesses in public expenditure

Fourth week
of July 2017
The consolidated fiscal primary expenditure represented 23% of GDP in 2004, while it represents 42% this year and gets closer to 45% after interest payments are included. In the same period, the consolidated primary result deteriorated around 10 points of GDP. The 5% surplus of 2004 turned into a defi...

A new global repricing, this time inspired by Central Banks

Third week
of July 2017
Since June 26 we are witnessing a new round of risk repricing at a global level.  Sovereign bonds issued by developed countries, foreign currencies and emerging market country risk premiums are teetering. The last time we saw a similar shock was just after Trump victory in the US elections.  The catal...

The pending utility rates adjustments and their impact on inflation and subsidies

Fourth week
of June 2017
The government has made meeting the targets of fiscal deficit reduction one of its priorities. The market is accepting a gradual adjustment today, but it will monitor the compliance of the targets minute by minute. Gradualism yes, inaction no! The fiscal targets establish a primary deficit that will reduce by one p...

Unemployment looks through the rearview mirror

Third week
of June 2017
The publication of unemployment statistics has caused much debate among economists. First of all, it is important to remember that unemployment is not a leading indicator. Whoever seeks to find any sign of change in trend within unemployment is looking in the wrong direction. Job generation is a far better indicator...

Inflation is decreasing, but it is still too early to reduce rates

Second week
of June 2017
Although inflation showed clear signs of deceleration in May, it still seems premature to start loosening the monetary policy, especially because core inflation remains over the Central Bank’s targets. Inflation was 1.3% in the metropolitan area in May, half of April’s. The deceleration of headline inflation was wi...