Weekly

Return to 2020 (without Covid)

Fourth week

of June 2022

Bonds in pesos continue to be under pressure, and each time the rollovers are for shorter terms. Prices fell sharply again last week. This brings back memories of the super-Tuesdays of Lebac auctions in which we wondered if the Central Bank was going to be able to renew everything that was due and what the cut-off r...

The butterfly effect that revived the BCS and knocked out CER bonds

Third week

of June 2022

In recent days there was turbulence in the financial markets, with sharp falls in CER bonds, significant withdrawals from investment funds and great concerns regarding a possible new reprofiling of bonds in pesos.

The Whirlwind of Pesos

Second week

of June 2022

And one day it happened. The bond market in pesos slumped and investors flocked out of CER bonds to stay in liquidity funds and fixed terms. The catastrophe was such that some titles that yielded negatively with respect to inflation began to pay 10 points above the IPC. This changed the physiognomy of the local mark...

Changes in Foreign Exchange Restrictions Begin

First week

of June 2022

The government knows that with an FX spread of 70/80% it is very difficult for the economy to find a balance, even if it is precarious. If we add fiscal and monetary issues to that, the imbalance is even more serious. To remove the restrictions on the FX market, even partially, in some sectors one must either have d...

The Populism of the Income Tax

Fourth week

of May 2022

The government is preparing to raise the non-taxable minimum of the income tax for people in a dependency relationship. According to a letter sent by the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Massa, to the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, there are 984,000 people who are reached by the tax. This represents...

Disoriented and Disorganized

Third week

of May 2022

The President of the Nation, Alberto Fernández, returned to the fray to raise the export taxes for the agricultural sector with the intention of "decoupling" (even more) local prices from international prices. Inflation is expected to exceed 5% in May after two months above 6% and the feeling of a government overwhe...

Change of Discourse?

Second week

of May 2022

Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, has changed his speech. On more than one occasion this week he made statements that are more similar to what we professional economists have been saying than those he himself said in his role in the government. He pointed out that the country cannot have a permanent deficit, much ...

"Reprofiling” Can Be Avoided

First week

of May 2022

In the market it was installed that the next government will have to "reprofile" or restructure the debt. The imminent problem would seem to be the debt in pesos, although it is also mentioned that the debt in dollars may follow. Our view is that, although this cannot be ruled out, they are perfectly avoidable event...

The World´s Economy Is More Complex Than What the Market Believes

Fifth week

of April 2022

The world economy is getting complicated. Those who gambled in 2021 that the rise in inflation was going to be temporary, exacerbated by the consequences of the pandemic on some markets such as microprocessors, have been losing in considerable amounts. This year inflation did not only not go down, but it accelerated...

A Creative Tax, but Very Inconvenient

Fourth week

of April 2022

The government announced that it will finance the bonuses to pensioners, self-employed and informal workers, which represent around 0.3% of GDP, with a new tax that will be called "unexpected income tax". Beyond the lack of precision to know exactly how this tax will be designed, there are many inconveniences of a p...

Weekly Reports

Return to 2020 (without Covid)

Return to 2020 (without Covid)

The butterfly effect that revived the BCS and knocked out CER bonds

The butterfly effect that revived the BCS and knocked out CER bonds

The Whirlwind of Pesos

The Whirlwind of Pesos

Changes in Foreign Exchange Restrictions Begin

Changes in Foreign Exchange Restrictions Begin

The Populism of the Income Tax

The Populism of the Income Tax

Disoriented and Disorganized

Disoriented and Disorganized

Change of Discourse?

Change of Discourse?

"Reprofiling” Can Be Avoided

"Reprofiling” Can Be Avoided

The World´s Economy Is More Complex Than What the Market Believes

The World´s Economy Is More Complex Than What the Market Believes

A Creative Tax, but Very Inconvenient

A Creative Tax, but Very Inconvenient

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