Weekly

Weekly Reports

In the last five years the increase in private and public consumption reduced the investment rate and the external surplus

Second week
of April 2011
Between 2006 and 2010 private and public savings fell 5.5 percentage points of GDP, affecting the investment rate and the trade surplus, which fell equally Several factors encourage consumption instead of savings: inflation, negative real interest rates, private loans aimed to consumption, new social policies, and...

The (lax) monetary target was met in the first quarter

First week
of April 2011
Total M2 grew 32.1% y/y on average over the past 30 days, within the programs target for the first quarter Private M2 increased 36.5% per annum, above the program’s 34.4% upper limit for the last quarter of the year The Central Bank can say it met the monetary target for the first quarter: the monetary aggreg...

Economic activity continued to grow strongly in January

Fourth week
of March 2011
According to the INDEC activity rose 0.5% relative to the previous month, in line with our estimates Activity grew 9.5% y/y according to the INDEC and 7.3% y/y according to our estimates We expect a “genuine” GDP growth of 5.0% for 2011, though the INDEC will probably calculate 6.0% or more Although it s...

Country risk rose due to volatility in international markets

Third week
of March 2011
Country risk in argentina, as indicated by the JP Morgan global EMBI, grew to its highest level since October of last year. 5 year CDS rose above 600 basic points once again, settling at 640 bps last Friday after having reached 665bps on Wednesday Events in Northern Africa and the Middle East, as well as the ...

The recovery of loans continues: they grew 40.3% y/y

Second week
of March 2011
Credit to the private sector registered an increase of 1.8% in February, above the 0.2% of the same month a year ago Deposits of the private sector in pesos rose 1.9% in February and accumulate a growth of 34.2% in the last 12 months   Credit to the private sector continues to recover. During February, ...

The stock of Nobacs already exceeds that of Lebacs: it amounted to AR$ 42.6 billion

First week
of March 2011
In a context of higher expectations of rates hikes, banks and investors choose Badlar adjusted notes. The total debt stock of the Central Bank amounts to AR$ 81.3 billion. For the first time since October 2009 the stock of Nobacs (adjustable by Badlar rate) exceeds that of Lebacs (fixed rate) in a context of highe...

Monetary base accelerates its growth rate: 34% y/y

Third week
of February 2011
Broadermonetary aggregates are also growing fast: private M2 grew at 33.2%. This acceleration in monetary base’s growth is consistent with the monetary program presented by the Central Bank for this year. For the first quarter, the monetary program established a target range for M2’s growth between 29% and 40% (in...

Loans continue to grow faster than deposits of the private sector: 2.9% in January

Second week
of February 2011
In the first month of the year and for the fourth consecutive month, loans grew faster than deposits of the private sector. While credit to the private sector rose 2.9%, deposits of the private sector increased 2.3%. However, considering the variation in volumes, deposits grew AR$4.81 billion in January, slightly ...

Central Bank allows exchange rate depreciation: 4 cents so far this year

First week
of February 2011
In the last three weeks the dollar registered a rise of 4 cents, in both retail and wholesale markets. In the wholesale market it stands at $4.02 and in exchange offices the ask price amounted to $4.04. In the informal market, the dollar also increases until reaching $4.15. In the last week of January, the spread ...