Weekly

Doing Nothing Is Not an Option

Third week

of November 2021

The midterm elections have passed. While the Government improved on its numbers from September, it still faced defeat and gave up seats in Congress. The President has announced he will present an economic plan, including an IMF deal, in early December. One of the many pressing questions is what will happen with the ...

The Merry-Go-Round

Second week

of November 2021

The dollar, the IMF and the Argentine exceptionality are a kind of merry-go-round, but this is no child’s game. Years go by, some actors change, but the problems are the same. The president returned from a very relevant international tour where he participated in the G20 summit, one of the most important economic ev...

The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy

First week

of November 2021

The official exchange rate remains tamed. On average, the dollar rose 1% in October, 1.1% in September and 1% in August. Well below inflation, that averaged more than 3% per month. It is true that in the last week of October the exchange rate accelerated a little, but too little to think that there is a trend change...

Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

Fourth week

of October 2021

When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are beginning to grow. They are, mainly, the fiscal issue, the monetary issue, largely the daughter of fi...

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes

Third week

of October 2021

As if Argentina had not been hit with the same stone hundreds of times, the government undertakes a new price control. The number of items in the program called “Precios Cuidados” is increased, and the values are frozen until January 7. Too late to be an electoral plan and too inconsistent to be an anti-inflation pl...

New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions

Second week

of October 2021

Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very likely that the government would bless a devaluation before the November 14...

Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems

First week

of October 2021

This week the government announced a plan for 55-year-old women and 60-year-old men to obtain their retirement if they are unemployed and meet a contribution requirement. The logic of the measure is that it is not easy for this group reintegrating into the labor market, much more after the shock of the pandemic. But...

Open for Business

Fourth week

of September 2021

“High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to a large sample of developed and emerging countries. But it does hold the gold medal in volatility:...

More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

Third week

of September 2021

The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market's vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime change in 2023 have increased. The market...

The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable

Second week

of September 2021

The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their foreign currency position a few months ago and now recovered it, purchases at the be...

Weekly Reports

Doing Nothing Is Not an Option

Doing Nothing Is Not an Option

The Merry-Go-Round

The Merry-Go-Round

The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy

The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy

Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes

Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes

New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions

New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions

Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems

Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems

Open for Business

Open for Business

More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable

The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable

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