Weekly

Weekly Reports

Why leaving the recession will take longer this time

Fourth week
of February 2019
There are some strong arguments to believe that exiting the recession will be a slower process compared to previous experiences, especially for the non-agricultural economic activity. For several months now, the economy has begun to undergo an important macroeconomic rebalancing triggered by a sudden decrease of ava...

Pending utility tariff hikes before primary elections

Third week
of February 2019
The electoral calendar indicates August 11th, when the primary elections will take place, as the starting line in the presidential run. Until then, many utility tariff hikes are expected, especially in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, in addition to the ones implemented in January. The adjustments expected bet...

Some keys to better read the numbers of economic activity

Fifth week
of January 2019
The assessment of economic activity numbers in 2018 and 2019 requires certain caution due to two aspects. The first is the drought that affected agricultural activity, especially in the second quarter of last year. If we exclude the agricultural sector, the drop in GDP last year was logically somewhat lower. The sec...

Primary balance equilibrium, a more than challenging goal

Fourth week
of January 2019
The primary deficit consistent with the definition of the agreement with the IMF was scarcely below 2.7% of GDP and the government achieved its fiscal target for 2018. But the zero primary deficit target for this year seems a lot more challenging: although primary expenditure will continue falling as a percentage of...

The 2019-20 financial program is too conservative

Third week
of January 2019
The Government published its updated financial program for 2019 and 2020 last week, from which we infer that financing needs are almost completely covered. However, those estimations are based on two extremely conservative assumptions: that this year only 46% of the existing stock of bills in dollars and in pesos wi...

Once again we must light a candle for the farmland and keep it burning

Second week
of January 2019
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its latest supply and demand estimation for agricultural products: the numbers for Argentina in 2019 smile at us, as long as the weather is still on our side. It is important that the current humidity conditions do not turn into a water excess in the follo...

The balance for 2018 and the prospects for 2019

Third week
of December 2018
In 2018 the Argentine economy suffered a currency crisis, which resulted into a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, high interest rates and a fall in economic activity levels, worsened by a strong draught. In this context, the most affected have been wage earners, who see the end of the year with falls o...