Por Miguel A. Kiguel
Todos sabemos cómo funciona el cepo, y hemos aprendido a vivir con tasas de interés reales negativas, a usar el dólar Contado con Liqui para eludir los controles...
In the last five years the increase in private and public consumption reduced the investment rate and the external surplus
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In the last five years the increase in private and public consumption reduced the investment rate and the external surplus
Second week
April 2011
Between 2006 and 2010 private and public savings fell 5.5 percentage points of GDP, affecting the investment rate and the trade surplus, which fell equally
Several factors encourage consumption instead of savings: inflation, negative real interest rates, private loans aimed to consumption, new social policies, and the lack of attractive saving instruments, between others.
If the Government wants this trend to continue, in the next years it will have to “choose” one of the following alternatives: abandon its “debt reduction policy” and go back to the external markets, moderate private and/or public consumption, accept a fall in investment rate and GDP growth rate and/or accept a fall in Central Bank reserves.
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