Weekly Reports

Emission, the Great Danger for the Second Semester

Fifth week
of July 2020
Argentina is heading towards a primary deficit which, being conservative, will reach 5.5% of GDP but could be higher, depending on factors such as assistance to the private sector through relief programs for the pandemic effect. It will also depend on how much subsidies on energy grow and whether pensions and public...

Unnecessary Noise

Third week
of June 2020
The announcement that Vicentín was being expropriated made a lot of unnecessary noise in the economy. This could complicate both the short-term and medium-term outlook, the former because it could affect the debt restructuring and the latter due to the post-pandemic situation. In 2019, Vicentín was the main exporter...

The Global Economy Recovers Fast… But a Swallow Does Not Make a Summer

Second week
of June 2020
The latest global economy data have been more encouraging than expected, making it possible for a V-shaped recovery to take place. However, one swallow does not make a summer, so we will have to wait for further data until we can determine if this first rebound ends up consolidating in a V-shape or if it turns out t...

The Financial Restrictions’ Diminishing Returns

Third week
of May 2020
The FX spread reached 100% last week measured as the difference between the parallel dollar and the official rate. It was a little less in its “Blue Chip Swap” and “MEP” variations. According to the records, this represents the greatest spread in 30 years. This difference between the official dollar and the rest cre...