Weekly

Weekly Reports

The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences

Fourth week
of September 2020
Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina's social scheme very clearly: unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good news. Instead of looking at unemployment, we must consider the employment rate. And there we can find devastating figures: onl...

No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds

Second week
of September 2020
The debt restructuration has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending, but nobody really believes Argentina plans on defaulting to the Fund, at most reaching the new arrangement will take ti...

Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF

Fifth week
of September 2020
Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance rate, which means over 99% of the bonds will be restructured once the collective action clauses are triggered. Some bo...

The Economy Recovers Faster, but It Will Leave Less Carry-Over for 2021

Fourth week
of August 2020
The Economic Activity Index with a seasonally adjusted 7.4% monthly growth showed that the recovery is somewhat better than originally expected. Even though INDEC does not release seasonally adjusted figures by sector, the data allows us to see that the two main areas of the economy, industry, and commerce, grew mor...

Dollar Quota, Reserves, or Cepo: Choosing the Lesser Evil

Third week
of August 2020
By the end of last week, the “savings dollar,” which is the 200 dollar quota at the official rate but paying an extra 30% in tax (resulting in around 100 pesos per dollar, depending on the bank’s commission), sparked up a debate within the Government. The president of the Central Bank, concerned by the fall in net r...

The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal

Second week
of August 2020
It took its time, but it happened: the government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 28th, Argentina will get the special majorities to trigger the collective action clauses and finish the debt restructuring without holdouts. D...

FX Leap or Fast Paced Crawling-Peg, That Is the Question

Fourth week
of July 2020
Even though history never repeats itself perfectly, the current situation has much in common with the conditions prior to the January 2014 devaluation when Axel Kicillof was Minister of Economy and Juan Carlos Fábrega headed the Central Bank. At that time, there was a discrete 23% rise in the exchange rate consideri...