Weekly

Weekly Reports

The fiscal improvement is stunning and it grants the debt sustainability

Third week
of July 2019
The release of the fiscal figures from the first half of the year showed a remarkable improvement in the fiscal balance. The primary-surplus target was surpassed by over ARS 10 billion without the need of using “adjustors” and practically without increasing the floating debt. The figures confirm the government’s foc...

What is the current real exchange rate telling us?

Second week
of July 2019
The current multilateral real exchange rate is 18% higher than during the 2016-17 period, before the 2018 exchange crisis. It is not a remarkable rise. At its worst moment when the dollar jumped to 40 pesos at the end of August last year, it was 55% higher. Since then it has been appreciating, although its path has ...

Employment grows, but so do unemployment and informality

Fourth week
of June 2019
In the first quarter of the year, there were around 200 thousand more jobs than one year ago, despite GDP dropping 5.8% during that same period. Real wages acted as a great buffer for unemployment. In effect, the economy did not destroy employment in absolute terms, in a context in which there is a hard fall in the ...

Quasi-fiscal surplus in 2018, though less than the published one

Second week
of June 2019
The CB has published its income statement for 2018, with ARS 577 billion in profits and it has announced it will distribute ARS 77 billion to the Treasury. Nonetheless, this accounting result is not the economic result, which is the important one from a macroeconomic point of view. The main driver of this surplus w...