Weekly

Weekly Reports

More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

Third week
of September 2021
The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market's vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime change in 2023 have increased. The market...

The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable

Second week
of September 2021
The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their foreign currency position a few months ago and now recovered it, purchases at the be...

Waiting for the Budget

First week
of September 2021
On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks to different factors such as the use of “special powers" to change spending...

Agreement With the IMF: One More Round Is Missing

Fifth week
of August 2021
This week, Argentine financial asset prices soared. Some say that the polls are bad for the government and that is good for the markets. Others attribute the rally to the versions that circulated in the press about an imminent agreement with the IMF. Our base scenario was always that the agreement between the IMF an...

One Year After the Restructuring, Still Orphans of a Plan

Third week
of August 2021
A year ago, Argentina reached an agreement with its main creditors and restructured the public debt in default. That allowed to almost clear the maturities schedule completely. The first year in which the market will see Argentine dollars will be in 2025 when between capital and interest it will pay about 10 billion...

The “Cepo” Reloaded

Third week
of July 2021
Last weekend the Central Bank and the Securities Commission tightened exchange restrictions, putting more limits on the operation with the most traded sovereign bonds, which are usually used by firms to buy dollars. In addition, it was sought to close some mechanisms that allowed conglomerate to access to the Blue-C...