Weekly

Rate Hike With Little Conviction

Third week

of March 2023

The Central Bank raised the monetary policy rate from 75 to 78%, that is, from 107.35% to 113.31% in terms of the effective rate, which is the one that matters. The minimum rates that banks must pay to firms and households also rose 3 percentage points. It is 69.5% for firms and 78% for people with up to 10 million ...

The Good and the Bad of the Debt Swap

Second week

of March 2023

The government finalized a debt swap that left a bittersweet taste. It is undeniable that it sharply reduced short-term financing needs. The magic number is 4.3 trillion pesos between March and June. All that debt went to 3 bonds with maturities in 2024 and 2025. And also, with the advantage that only one of the 6 o...

The Drought Is Complicating FX Policy

First week

of March 2023

The drought is turning out to be much worse than the most pessimistic forecasts from a few weeks ago. Today the scenario where Argentina harvests less than 30 million tons of soybeans and less than 40 million tons of corn has a high probability. The loss of exports from the oilseed cereal complex can reach 18 billio...

Politics, the Economy and a Dog That Bites Its Tail

Fourth week

of February 2023

We are entering the electoral period. In the opposition, one of the pre-candidacies has already been launched and soon there will be others. Last week, the ruling party's political table was inaugurated and although nothing has been defined there are several figures who are positioned to fight a presidential candida...

The buyback, not delivered

Third week

of February 2023

One month ago, the government announced a dollar-denominated debt repurchase program for USD 1 billion, which could make it possible to withdraw some 3 billion nominal debt. On the day of the announcement, the country risk closed at 1,807 points. One month later we are above 2,100 points and with fewer reserves. The...

Myths and Realities of Local-Currency Debt

Second week

of February 2023

The government is struggling with its mission to muddle through until October. The idea is to get to the elections without another shock to the economy, either through the exchange rate due to lack of reserves, another domestic debt sell-off or higher inflation. Of course, there are more issues of concern, but these...

“Fair Prices” and Inflation: It Sure Works This Time

First week

of February 2023

Last Friday the Ministry of Finance relaunched the program called "Fair Prices" in which prices of some 50,000 products were agreed, including mass consumption items and others such as cell phones. Beyond the fact that the calendar marked the need to renew the program signed last October, the moment coincided with a...

Rates Go Up and Down on a Flimsy Architecture

Fourth week

of January 2023

The government's main concern is clearly the value of the market dollar; the informal, the MEP and BCS. Beyond the monetary illusion that invades society and that makes possible headlines such as "Dollar price hits record", the truth is that the government is uncomfortable with the informal rate approaching 400 peso...

Debt Repurchase With an FX Goal

Third week

of January 2023

The government announced last week that it would buy back USD 1 billion of dollar-denominated sovereign debt, potentially reducing the stock by about 3 billion given prevailing market prices. The measure was "sold" as a yield curve improvement, but that appears to be a questionable objective in the current circumsta...

The Reasons for the Improvement in Argentine Asset Prices

Second week

of January 2023

In recent weeks, Argentine assets have had a spectacular comeback. Country risk fell under 2,000 basis points last week after having touched 2,927 bps in the winter, with several series of Argentine sovereign bonds trading below 20 cents for each dollar. Today those bonds still yield a lot, but they are worth 50% mo...

Weekly Reports

Rate Hike With Little Conviction

Rate Hike With Little Conviction

The Good and the Bad of the Debt Swap

The Good and the Bad of the Debt Swap

The Drought Is Complicating FX Policy

The Drought Is Complicating FX Policy

Politics, the Economy and a Dog That Bites Its Tail

Politics, the Economy and a Dog That Bites Its Tail

The buyback, not delivered

The buyback, not delivered

Myths and Realities of Local-Currency Debt

Myths and Realities of Local-Currency Debt

“Fair Prices” and Inflation: It Sure Works This Time

“Fair Prices” and Inflation: It Sure Works This Time

Rates Go Up and Down on a Flimsy Architecture

Rates Go Up and Down on a Flimsy Architecture

Debt Repurchase With an FX Goal

Debt Repurchase With an FX Goal

The Reasons for the Improvement in Argentine Asset Prices

The Reasons for the Improvement in Argentine Asset Prices

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