Weekly

Weekly Reports

Quasi-fiscal surplus in 2018, though less than the published one

Second week
of June 2019
The CB has published its income statement for 2018, with ARS 577 billion in profits and it has announced it will distribute ARS 77 billion to the Treasury. Nonetheless, this accounting result is not the economic result, which is the important one from a macroeconomic point of view. The main driver of this surplus w...

Demand for dollar bills and portfolio rebalancing in perspective

Fourth week
of May 2019
Generally, as a preventive measure, resident and non-resident investors adjust their portfolios before the elections. These changes are usually translated into an increase of net dollar bills purchases from residents. For many, this is the most familiar concept. But there are also other adjustments which are equally...

The economy in election mode: this time it will be different

Second week
of May 2019
2019 will be the first election to occur during a recessive year since the 2009 crisis, and also the first one in which private consumption reaches October below its levels from the previous year. This time, the economic situation will hardly be the center of the Government’s campaign: rather, it will become an obst...

Pragmatism to deal with exchange rate volatility

Fifth week
of April 2019
Since yesterday the Central Bank is able to make exchange rate interventions without any restrictions in order to mitigate excessive exchange rate volatility even within the non-intervention zone. The resulting amount of pesos will be deducted from the monetary base target, which, under such circumstances, implies r...

Easter measures

Fourth week
of April 2019
Last week was short but intense. The release of March’s inflation data at 4.7% monthly was the prelude of the announcements on many fronts. Monetary-wise, the contractive bias of the program was reinforced by freezing the floor and ceiling of the non-intervention zone (NIZ) at the current levels until the end of the...

The temporary relief provided by the IMF’s dollars

Third week
of April 2019
Today, the auctions of Treasury’s dollars began. The rules agreed with the IMF leave no room for discretion. USD 60 million will be sold each day until completing the year’s total of USD 9.6 billion. We are expecting several quiet weeks in the FX market, with a moderate nominal appreciation of the peso, also as a re...

Third revision of the Stand By Arrangement with the IMF

Second week
of April 2019
The IMF’s board approved the third revision of the program and authorized the disbursement of USD 10.8 billion that correspond to the first quarter of 2019. For the second and third quarters, a USD 5.4 billion disbursement is expected, while USD 980 million will be wired in the fourth quarter subject to compliance o...