Monthly

The economy is slowing down as the rebound is losing strength and the external environment deteriorates. Recent data has provided more evidence that the economy is at a turning point as growth is slowing down and inflation is on the rise. By and large these outcomes are explained by domestic factors, despite the...

The approval of the second tranche of the IMF agreement was preceded by tense negotiations and the threat of a breakup in the relations. Both parties are likely to continue to make efforts to maintain the program, but if there is not significant progress in the negotiations with private creditors by September t...

Our base case scenario indicates growth around 7.2 percent in 2004, investment reaching 15 percent of GDP, consumption growing at 7.4 percent, a large increase in imports (close to 30%) and a current account balance surplus of 4.9 billion dollars. Inflation is likely to reach 8 percent, and will stay within the infl...

While the economy will most likely grow over 6 percent this year and around 4 percent in 2004, the medium term prospects remain unclear. Financial stability, sound macroeconomic policies and a favorable external environment have enabled the rebound. But the recovery from a very low base has been the easier...