Monthly

Election turmoil or soybean-led recovery?

June 2009

Reflections before the Elections. As the country is getting ready to go to the polls the economic and financial conditions provide a mix picture. On the one hand, the financial front has remained relatively calm, especially given the volatility that is typical of election periods. There has been a significant ti...

Economic developments governed by the election

May 2009

Why have financial conditions improved? The Argentine financial markets have been more stable in the last few weeks, as the exchange rate stabilized in the 3.70 to 3.75 range, deposits remained steady, and the price of Argentine bonds have rallied after months of being depressed. The reasons for this improvement...

Same questions about Argentina: have the answers changed?

April 2009

The new international environment and the IMF. The international financial crisis appears to be receding and the recent evidence provides some support to those that believe that the worst of the financial panic is behind us. Although we are not anticipating a strong recovery in stocks or in real estate prices, n...

The economy hostage of politics

March 2009

The decision to move forward the elections and the new conflict with the farmers has changed the economic scene in at least two ways. First, it has increased the concerns about the exchange rate, as the farmers are postponing the sale of export proceeds while small investors are shifting their portfolios to dol...

Exports fall, capital outflows continue, but no major problems in the horizon

February 2009

The Argentine economy is starting to feel the pinch from the global recession and construction and industrial production are the first sectors to feel pressure The outlook is worsened by the drought that could reduce agriculture production by as much as 20%. The recession is having a large negative effect on t...

What went wrong in 2008 and the outlook for 2009

January 2009

The year 2008 probably marked the beginning of the end of the current economic model, what we termed Penguinomics. The year 2008 probably marked the beginning of the end of the current economic model, what we termed Penguinomics, which was based on an undervalued currency and low interest rates, twin surpluses ...

Lots of fireworks but little firepower: the Argentine policy response

December 2008

The Argentine economy is likely to face a recession and the Government lacks policy instruments to avoid it. Fiscal policy is restricted by lack of financing while it seems difficult to use expansionary monetary policy or to resort to a maxidevaluation while deposits remain volatile. In the meantime cap...

Fiscal and financial impact of the new domestic and international environment

November 2008

The year of living dangerously. The Argentine economy is facing the most difficult juncture since the 2001 crisis. The recession could be around the corner, consumer confidence has collapsed, there are pressures on the currency and international reserves are falling, domestic interest rates have sharply increase...

The world turns around but don’t cry yet for Argentina

October 2008

New questions about Argentina"s economic outlook. The international financial crisis opens a host of new questions about Argentina’s economic outlook. The sharp fall in soybean prices and the astronomically high yields on Government bonds imply a more pessimistic scenario with less growth and higher risks...

The fiscal outlook: what and why can change in 2009?

September 2008

What"s new and important. The economy continues to be affected by the aftermath effects of the farm crisis. There was a rebound in economic activity in July, as demand recovered boosted by the overall improvement of economic and financial conditions and supply increased since the road blockages were lifted, but ...

Monthly Reports

Election turmoil or soybean-led recovery?

Election turmoil or soybean-led recovery?

Economic developments governed by the election

Economic developments governed by the election

Same questions about Argentina: have the answers changed?

Same questions about Argentina: have the answers changed?

The economy hostage of politics

The economy hostage of politics

Exports fall, capital outflows continue, but no major problems in the horizon

Exports fall, capital outflows continue, but no major problems in the horizon

What went wrong in 2008 and the outlook for 2009

What went wrong in 2008 and the outlook for 2009

Lots of fireworks but little firepower: the Argentine policy response

Lots of fireworks but little firepower: the Argentine policy response

Fiscal and financial impact of the new domestic and international environment

Fiscal and financial impact of the new domestic and international environment

The world turns around but don’t cry yet for Argentina

The world turns around but don’t cry yet for Argentina

The fiscal outlook: what and why can change in 2009?

The fiscal outlook: what and why can change in 2009?

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